Indonesia suffered from unfavorable cropconditions from August to October, while the dry season maize and rice wereentering reproductive or early ripening stage. Compared with the recent average,precipitation was very significantly below average (-67%) as a result of the on-goingEl Niño. Corresponding with the sharp drop in rainfall, PAR displays anincrease of 11%. As a result of the lack of rain, the rain-fed biomassaccumulation potential dropped (-59%). Dry weather delayed the planting ofthe main seasonal crops in 2016. This information is consistent with the NDVIprofile, which shows that the average NDVI was below the five-year averageduring this monitoring period. Contrasting NDVI clusters are observed withmostly below average conditions in central Sumatra (including Riau and Jambi)in September and October. In conclusion, rice and maize production of Indonesiaare well below average in 2015.

 Figure 3.15. Indonesia cropcondition, July-October 2015

(a)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                             (b) Maximum VCI

(c)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                           (d) NDVI profile