As already mentioned in the previous CropWatch bulletin, conditions were largely unfavorable during the Belg season before August when the early crops are harvested. The current reporting period mostly covers the early main season Meher crops that will be harvested until December. Overall, NDVI was well belowthe recent 5-year average until June, above average until August but then itdropped below average again until October. At the national level, July toAugust rainfall was 20% below average. A positive sunshine anomaly (+6%)combined with above average temperature (+0.9°C) has resulted in increased cropwater requirements, which has further exacerbated crop water requirements andstress. This resulted in an estimated drop in biomass production potential of17%. In spite of a fair VCIx value of 0.86, the agronomic indicators include adecrease of 4% for both cropped arable land and cropping intensity, twonegative signs.

NDVIclusters and the maximum VCI map provide additional detail about regionalspatial differences. Altogether, conditions are favourable in about 35% ofagricultural areas and average in 39% of the croplands. Crop condition has beendeteriorating constantly since July in the remaining areas (22% of croppedareas) corresponding essentially to (1) most of Tigray, where the growingseason is normally short and ending in September; (2) scattered areas inEast Amhara especially in the eastern parts of North Wollo and East Gojam and(3) north-east SNPP and adjacent areas in Oromia (east Shewa) as well as otherareas in Oromia such as the east of Arsi and the northern parts of East andWest Hararghe. The region described in (2), Amhara, includes some of the majorwheat and teff producing areas whose first season starts in February (the Belgseason, which mostly failed this year) and a main season from June to October.In the east of the region described in (3), Hararghe, the season is long butreliable rainfall occurs only in July to August. While large areas of thecountry were able to grow fair crops, about 25% suffered from dry conditions,resulting in below average output expectations and poor rangeland conditions.

Figure3.12. Ethiopia crop condition, July-October 2015

(a) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

                                        (b) Maximum VCI

(c)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                    (d) NDVI profile