The CropWatch rainfall indicator for Nigeria from July to October exceeded the recent average by 21%, accompanied by a drop in RADPAR of 3%, resultingin an estimated biomass potential increase of 7% compared with the last five years. From July to August, however, national NDVI was below the recent 5-yearreference values, reaching values closer to average at the time of the cereal harvest in the northern, Sahelian regions, also the time of the harvest of thefirst maize crop in central and southern regions. CALF decreased 5% while the cropping intensity remained stable at a favourable average VCIx of 0.82

NDVI clusters show above average and average conditions in the centralGuinean maize belt and the northern Sahelian regions where sorghum and millets replace maize due to the drier climate. The two mentioned areasapproximately coincide with the northern half of the country: in 34% of the country crops were average or above average, 48% was slightly below average inJuly and August at the time of harvest. In the south, conditions wereapproximately average at the time of the harvest of the first crops but generallyless favourable at the time of planting of the second crop that will beharvested in December and January 2016.

Agroclimatic indices, NDVI and VCIx describe a situation of mixed cereal crop condition, mostly favourable in the north and mixed in the south where,however, cassava and yams are the main staples.  

 Figure 3.22. Nigeria crop condition, July-October 2015

(a)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                    (b) Maximum VCI

(c)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                  (d) NDVI profile