Chapter 4 presents a detailed analysis for China, focusingon the seven most productive agro-ecological regions of the east and south.After a brief overview of the agroclimatic and agronomic conditions over themonitoring period (section 4.1), a new bulletin section (4.2) describes thesituation with pests and diseases that are affecting agricultural crops inChina. Section 4.3 then presents an outlook for 2015 production of maize, rice,wheat, and soybean, while section 4.4 presents analyses by region. Additionalinformation on the agroclimatic indicators for agriculturally important Chineseprovinces are listed in table A.11 in Annex A.

4.1 Overview

Average conditions prevailed during the monitoring period (rainfall,+1%; temperature -0.7°C and RADPAR, -3%), resulting in average potentialbiomass (BIOMSS). TEMP was low in all seven regions in China; the largestdecrease (-1.3°C) in the Lower Yangtze region was associated with abundantrainfall while in other regions, temperature was just slightly lower thanaverage. RAIN was significantly lower than expected in in Huanghuaihai (-30%),the Northeast region (-24%) and the southern islands (Hainan, -41%; Taiwan,-25%) while extremely high precipitation was recoded over Xinjiang (+173%).Almost all of the major agricultural areas of China suffered from lowtemperatures during mid-August, September and late-October.

Table 4.1. CropWatch agroclimatic and agronomic indicatorsfor China, July-October 2015, departure from 5YA and 14YA

Note: Departuresare expressed in relative terms (percentage) for all variables, except fortemperature, for which absolute departure in degrees Celsius is given. Zeromeans no change from the average value; relative departures are calculated as(C-R)/R*100, with C=current value and R=reference value, which is the five(5YA) or fourteen-year average (14YA) for the same period (July-October).

Figures 4.1-4.6 illustrate the distribution and profiles of rainfall (RAIN) andtemperature (TEMP) indicators, as well as the fraction of cropped arable land(CALF), maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx), cropping intensity, andminimum vegetation health index (VHIn). Indicator values are also provided intable 4.1.

Figure 4.1. China spatial distribution of rainfallprofiles

High VCIx values occurred mostly in southern China and in the north-eastregion. Low VCIx values occur mainly in central and northern China, particularlyin the centre of Ningxia and the north of Shaanxi provinces. Crop condition inthe north-east was above average (VCIx at 0.87), though agroclimatic conditionsare average. At the regional and provincial scales, BIOMSS was above average inthe Lower Yangtze (+11%) and low in the north-east (-22%), Huanghuaihai (-23%)and especially Hainan (-28%). 

During the monitoring period the cropped arable land fraction (CALF)remained stable in comparison with last year; for four of the seven monitoredregions, CALF was about equal to the five-year average; slightly negative valuesare only recorded for the north-east and Huanghuaihai regions (-1%); in theLoess region, the CALF increased by 5%, indicating that more arable land wascultivated. Cropping intensity increased by 2% and 1% in the Loess and south-westernregions, respectively, but was average in the north-east and Huanghuaihairegions; it decreased in the other three regions. Uncropped land was mainlylocated in the northwest of China.

Minimum VHI indicates that almost all provinces in central and easternChina suffered from water stress, including the south-east of Sichuan,central Jiangsu, central Liaoning, and the west of Hebei (figure 4.6).

4.2 Impactof pests and diseases

The impact of pests and diseases was relatively moderate duringSeptember 2015 in the main rice regions of China. For Southern China and themiddle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, most of late rice isat milking or milk ripeness stages; therefore, migratory pests and epidemicdiseases still constitute a threat to rice yield.

The distribution of the rice plant hopper during September 2015 is shownin figure 4.7 and table 4.2. The total area affected with plant hopper hasreached 6 million ha, with the pest mostly occurring in Huanghuaihai, SouthernChina, middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The most severelyaffected areas include central Hubei, southern and central Hunan, southern andcentral Jiangxi, and eastern Henan.

Figure 4.7. Distribution of therice planthopper

Table 4.2. Areas in China affectedby rice planthopper, September 2015

Rice sheath blight (figure 4.8 and table4.3) damaged around 8.6 million ha in the whole country, with the diseasemostly found in Huanghuaihai, Southern China, and the middle and lower reachesof the Yangtze River. Damage was most severe in eastern and central Hubei,southern and central Hunan, southern and central Jiangxi, eastern and centralGuangxi, northern and central Guangdong and eastern Henan.

Figure 4.8.Distribution of rice sheath blight in China, September 2015

Table 4.3. Areas in China affected by rice sheath blight, September 2015

Rice leaffolder (figure 4.9 and table 4.4) damaged around 5 million hain the country, mostly in Huanghuaihai, as well as middle and lower reaches ofthe Yangtze River. Damage was most severe in central Hunan, most of Jiangxi andcentral Guangxi.

Figure 4.9. Distribution of rice leaffolder in China,September 2015

Table 4.4. Areas in China affected by rice leaffolder, September 2015