Chapter 3. Core countries 

3.1 Overview 

Chapters 1 and 2 have focused on large climate anomalies that sometimes reach the size of continents and beyond. The present section offers a closer look at individual countries, including the 42 countries that together produce and commercialize 80 percent of maize, rice, wheat and soybean. As evidenced by the data in this section, even countries of minor agricultural or geopolitical relevance are exposed to extreme conditions and deserve mentioning, particularly when they logically fit into larger patterns. 

1. Introduction 

The global agroclimatic patterns that emerge at the MRU level (chapter 1) are reflected with greater spatial detail at the national and sub-national administrative levels described in this chapter. The "core countries", including major producing and exporting countries, are all the object of a specific and detailed narrative in the later sections of this chapter, while China is covered in Chapter 4. Sub-national units and national agro-ecological zones receive due attention in this chapter as well. 

In many cases, the situations listed below are also mentioned in the section on disasters (chapter 5.2) although extreme events tend to be limited spatially, so that the statistical abnormality is not necessarily reflected in the climate statistics that include larger areas. No attempts are normally made, in this chapter, to identify global patterns that were already covered in Chapter 1. The focus is on 166 individual countries and sometimes their subdivisions for the largest ones. Some of them are relatively minor agricultural producers at the global scale, but their national production is nevertheless crucial for their population, and conditions may be more extreme than among the large producers. 

2. Overview of weather conditions in major agricultural exporting countries 

The current section provides a short overview of prevailing conditions among the major exporters of maize, rice, wheat and soybeans, conventionally taken as the countries that export at least one million tonnes of the covered commodities. There are only 20 countries that rank among the top ten exporters of maize, rice, wheat and soybeans respectively. The United States and Argentina rank among the top ten of all four crops, whereas Brazil, Ukraine and Russia rank among the top ten of three crops. 

 Maize: Maize exports are dominated by just 4 countries: USA, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine. Together, they supply almost 90% of the maize being traded internationally. During this monitoring period, maize planting had started in late September in southern Brazil. Conditions were generally on the dry side, due to the continuing La Niña conditions, which may further constrain production in southern Brazil and Argentina. In the USA, the largest exporter, conditions were generally favorable. During the previous monitoring period, conditions were reported to be on the dry side for the northern parts of Iowa. However, they returned to normal in August. Combined with the favorable conditions in the key maize producing states, high production levels can be expected for the USA. Weather conditions for maize production were also favorable in Ukraine, where record yields have been forecasted as well. Conditions in West Africa were less favorable, as rain was about 30% below average. Rain was normal in Ethiopia. In China, moisture was abundant and parts of the North China Plain experienced flooding conditions. Harvest was also hampered in parts of area by rains that lasted well into October. 

Rice: Four out of the 5 top rice exporting countries are located in South and Southeast Asia: India supplies about 1/3 of the rice that is internationally traded, followed by Thailand with 1/5. The USA, number 3, supplies less than 10%. Vietnam contributes about 7% and Pakistan close to 6%. The southern rice producing regions of the USA had received plenty of rainfall, whereas California, the second most important production region, was affected by an extreme drought. Weather conditions in Southeast Asia, with a combined market share of slightly more than 25%, were close to normal. In China, rice benefitted from normal to above normal rainfall.  In South Asia, conditions were also favorable for rice production and Indian farmers harvested a record setting rice crop. 

Wheat: Conditions for wheat production in Argentina and Brazil were generally favorable, although some regions within those two countries had been affected by drought conditions. Especially in Parana (Brazil) conditions were not so favorable due to drier-than-normal weather and frosts in July and August. Wheat production in the northern and western states of the USA and in the Canadian Prairies was negatively affected by extreme heat and drought conditions. Conditions for wheat were generally favorable for most of Europe and Ukraine. They were less favorable in the Urals and Volga region of Russia and neighboring Kazakhstan, causing a drop in production as compared to last year. Conditions for spring wheat in China were generally favorable. Similarly, wheat in Australia also benefitted from good rainfall. 

Soybean: Similar to maize, the soybean market is dominated by few countries: Brazil, the USA and Argentina account for more than 80% of total production. Brazil's share is more than half of the soybean traded on the international market, followed by the USA (30%), Argentina (5%), Paraguay (4%) and Canada (3%). Soybean planting for the 2021/22 season started in October in Brazil. Dry weather in the first half of October provided good conditions for sowing. Subsequent heavy rains in late October helped with germination and crop establishment. Weather conditions in most of the soybean producing regions of the USA were favorable and high yields can be expected. 

3. Weather anomalies and biomass production potential changes 

(1) Rainfall 

Rainfall anomalies depict the average departure of rainfall from the 15YA. The map shows average rainfall departures for the 4 month period. They do not show short term water deficits. Nevertheless, they indicate where rainfall was generally favorable or not for crop production.

Figure 3.1 National and subnational rainfall anomaly (as indicated by the RAIN indicator) of July to October 2021 total relative to the 2006-2020 average (15YA), in percent.

Heavy rains in late October brought a welcome relief for the West Coast of the USA. On average, rainfall was above average for most of the USA, although crop production in the West, Northwest and Northern Plains, as well as in the Canadian Prairies had been severely impacted by the drought conditions in July and August. In South America, wheat was the main crop that was grown in the Pampas of Argentina and southern Brazil. In parts of Argentina, conditions were favorable, whereas most of Brazil had been impacted by drought conditions. In South Africa, the Cape Province received normal to above normal rainfall, whereas most of the other regions of the continent received below average rainfall. In West- and East Africa, rainfall was more than 30% below average. Western and northern Europe received above average rainfall, whereas it was below average in Hungary and parts of Romania. Summer is generally a dry period for the countries bordering the eastern Mediterranean basin. Nevertheless, rainfall was below average in that region. Dry conditions were also recorded for Irak, Iran, Afghanistan, Central Asia, the Volga and southern Ural region of Russia. In neighboring Kazakhstan, rainfall was near average. But it could not compensate for the rainfall deficit that had been recorded during the previous monitoring period. Rainfall in India was mixed, but conditions were generally favorable for rice production. In Southeast Asia, as well as China, rice also benefitted from an ample supply of moisture. Rainfall in the North China Plain was above average. Rains lasted until October, negatively impacting the harvest season    of the maize crop and subsequent sowing of the winter wheat crop. Conditions were favorable for wheat production in Australia due to average to above average rainfall.

(2) Temperature anomalies

Average and warmer than average temperatures were recorded for all regions south of the equator, except for the southern tip of Africa. In the USA and Canada, temperatures were above average average, except for Arizona, and the Southeast. The Midwest and the Canadian Prairies experienced above average temperatures. Westafrica also experienced warmer than usual temperatures. Cooler temperatures occurred in regions with above average rainfall, such as Western Europe, Mongolia and the north of China. A severe cold spell in late September caused below average temperatures in Kazakhstan and the southern Ural. Apart from the aforementioned regions, temperatures where mostly near average in most of Asia. In the import winter crop production regions of Australia, temperatures were near average. 

Figure 3.2 National and subnational temperature anomaly (as indicated by the TEMP indicator) of July to October 2021 average relative to the 2006-2020 average (15YA), in °C.

(3) RADPAR anomalies 

Similar to the temperatures, solar radiation was predominantly above average in most regions south of the equator. Zimbabwe, Mozambique, as well as Western and Southeastern Australia are the notable exceptions. In California and Washington State in the USA, which were plagued by wild fires and smog, radiation levels were more than 1% below average. The Northeast of the USA experienced solar radiation levels that were more than 3% below average. For the other regions in Central and North America, solar radiation was around or above average. Solar radiation was below average in France, Germany and Poland. For the other European countries, it was around or above average. Most of Eastern Europe and Russia experienced above average solar radiation. Ethiopia, Oman, Iran, Georgia, the Indo-Gangetic Plain, Mongolia and most of China, except the south, experienced below average solar radiation. Solar radiation was in general more than 3% above the 15YA in southern India and the rice producing countries in Southeast Asia.

Figure 3.3 National and subnational sunshine anomaly (as indicated by the RADPAR indicator) of July to October 2021 total relative to the 2006-2020 average (15YA), in percent

(4) Biomass accumulation potential BIOMSS

The map depicting potential biomass production shows more variability than the other three maps. It shows mostly negative departures for most of South America, except some provinces in Argentina at the foothill of the Andes and for the heart of the Amazon basin. A positive departure is also shown for the USA. Below average production is estimated for the Canadian Prairies, mostly due to the drought conditions. A strong negative departure is also shown for most of West, North and East Africa. Estimates for Central Africa and Ethiopia hovered around the average. Average to above average production was estimated for western Europe. In Russia, the conditions were highly variable. For Turkey, Irak, Central Asia and Afghanistan a strong negative departure was estimated. In India, conditions were mixed, although generally positive.  Average conditions to a strong positive departure was estimated for all of China and Australia. In Southeast Asia, conditions were generally on average. 

Figure 3.4 National and subnational bionass production potential anomaly (as indicated by the BIOMSS indicator) of July to October 2021 total relative to the 2006-2020 average (15YA), in percent.

Table 3.1  July- October 2021 agro-climatic and Agronomic indicators by country, current value and departure from average.