Wheat, maize and rice are the main cereals that are grown in Afghanistan. The sowing of spring wheat starts in March and April and harvest is in August and September. Maize sowing starts in May and harvest is in August. Likewise, rice sowing starts in May/June and harvest is in October/November.

The agro-climatic condition showed that RAIN decreased by 38%, and TEMP and RADPAR were close to the average level. The decrease in rainfall resulted in significantly lower biomass (-17%). The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) increased by 3%. VCIx was low, it reached only 0.23. It is worth noting that the rainfall was very low in northern Afghanistan. The hardest hit provinces were Badghis Province and Faryab Province. But drought conditions were observed for the other regions as well. 

According to the spatial distribution of NDVI profiles, the overall crop growth in Afghanistan was below the average level.  The growth of crops in 58.4% of the crop land area was lower than the average level and mainly distributed in northern Afghanistan, which may be related to the decrease of rainfall. Additionally, about 37.4% of total cropped areas were near average, mainly distributed in southern Afghanistan, and only 4.3% of the total cropped areas were positive during the entire monitoring period. The VCIx diagram represents the same conditions.

During the monitoring period, Afghanistan has suffered a severe drought, and the prospect for crop production is far below normal. Its effects were exacerbated by the war and the change in the Government, resulting in a shortage of food supply. According to relevant reports, more than half of Afghans are experiencing a food crisis.

Regional analysis

CropWatch subdivides Afghanistan into four zones based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topography. They are described below as Dry region, Central region with sparse vegetation, Mixed dry farming and irrigated cultivation region, and Mixed dry farming and grazing region.

The RAIN in the Central region with sparse vegetation was 17 mm (-38%). The TEMP was 15°C, and the RADPAR was 1469 MJ/m², at an average level. According to the NDVI-based crop condition development graph, the NDVI was slightly lower than the average level between July and October. BIOMSS decreased by 15%, CALF had increased by 7% and VCIx was 0.38.

The Dry region recorded 22 mm of rainfall (RAIN -10%), TEMP was higher than average at 21.5°C, and RADPAR was 1484 MJ/m². According to the NDVI-based development graph, crop conditions were lower than the five-year average in the monitoring period. CALF in this region was only 4% and VCIx was 0.2.

In the Mixed dry farming and irrigated cultivation region, the following indicator values were observed: RAIN 41 mm (-41%); TEMP 17.5°C (-0.1°C); RADPAR 1446 MJ/m2 (+2%). BIOMSS was 153 g DM/m² (-26%) and CALF was 2% above average. According to the NDVI-based crop condition development graph, NDVI was lower than the average level and VCIx was 0.32.

The Mixed dry farming and grazing region recorded 1 mm of rainfall (RAIN -92%). TEMP was 20.1°C (-0.2°C) and RADPAR was 1478 MJ/m², at an average level. CALF was 13% above the 5YA. VCIx was 0.09 and BIOMSS decreased by 23%. According to the crop condition development graph, the NDVI was much lower than the 5YA throughout the monitoring period.

Figure 3.5 Afghanistan’s crop condition, July- October 2021

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI               (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                                    (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                                                                              (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (central_Sparse_Veg Region (left) and Mixed_Farming_Graze Region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Mixed_Dry_Irrigated Region (left) and Dry (right))

Table 3.1 Afghanistan’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, July – October 2021

Table 3.2 Afghanistan’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, July – October 2021