The current monitoring period covers the end of the sowing, main growth and early harvest periods of wheat and barley, which are the main cereal crops of Australia. The national NDVI profile was much better than the average of the last 5 years, nearly reaching the maximum levels.

In the current period, rainfall was higher than the 15-year average (RAIN +16%). The average temperature was normal while the sunshine was slightly below average (-1%). Abundant rainfall led to an increasing biomass (BIOMSS, +9%). The agronomic indicators were also positive, with a VCIx of 0.85 and an increased CALF (+5%).

The conditions in the four main wheat production states (New South Wales, South Australia, Victoria, and Western Australia) were similar, with above-average rainfall (ranging from +8% to +34%), slightly cooler temperature (ranging from -0.2°C to -0.5°C), average sunshine (ranging from -3% to +4%). Like the national indicators, the sufficient rainfall brought above average biomass (ranging from +2% to +15%). Spatially, the VCI map shows that the overall conditions in Australia were favorable, and the low values only appeared in New South Wales and north Victoria. The spatial NDVI profiles show the same pattern. The NDVI values for 16.1% of the crop areas were below average during this period and 39.4% were near average. The other areas were above average. Overall, the crop conditions for Australia were very favorable.

Regional analysis

This analysis adopts five agro-ecological regions for Australia, namely the Arid and Semi-arid Zone, Southeastern Wheat Zone, Subhumid Subtropical Zone, Southwestern Wheat Zone, Wet Temperate and Subtropical Zone. The Arid and Semi-arid Zone, in which hardly any crop production takes place, was not analyzed.

During the current period, the four main AEZs had similar indicator departures: above-average rainfall and biomass. The conditions in these regions were all favorable.

The rainfall in the Southeastern wheat area was 17% above average, while the temperature (-0.4°C) and RADPAR (-1%) were slightly below average. Due to the sufficient rainfall, the biomass was also above average (BIOMSS, +8%). The CALF was average, CI was 108%, and the VCIx was 0.81.

The agroclimatic indicators in the Subhumid subtropical zone were stable, with a slightly increased rainfall (RAIN, +4%), average temperature and sunshine. The biomass  (+8%),  CALF (+29%), and CI (113%, +8%) were above average.  VCIx was also favorable (0.78).

The largest rainfall departure appeared in Southwestern wheat area (+36%), which resulted in a decreased temperature (-0.6°C) and sunshine (-5%). However, the sufficient rain caused an above average estimate of the biomass (+17%). The agronomic indicators were favorable (CALF +8%, CI 0%, VCIx 0.99).

The rainfall in Wet temperate and subtropical zone was also above average (+16%), which led to an increased biomass (+7%). Unlike the other 3 regions, the temperature was slightly above average (+0.2 °C), while the sunshine was still below average (-1%). The CALF was 0.95, which was average, CI was 102% (decreased by 4%), and VCIx was 0.84.

Overall, combining the agro-climatic and agronomic indicators, the crop conditions in the JASO period were favorable, and an above-average but below 2020 production is estimated.

Figure 3.6. Australia crop condition, July 2021-October 2021

(a). Phenology of major crops

 (b)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI         (c) Maximum VCI(b) 

(d)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                       (e)NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid and semiarid zone (left) and Southeastern wheat area (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Subhumid subtropical zone (left) and Southwestern wheat area (right))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Wet temperate and subtropical zone)

(i)Time series rainfall profile (left) and temperature profile (right))