During the reporting period, rainfall and temperature were near the 15YA  in July and August, which allowed the sowing of the main rice crop (Aman) and the harvesting of Aus rice to be completed in August.  September and October covered the main growth period of Aman rice, the rainfall was near average and TEMP was slightly above average. For the whole reporting period, rainfall was below average (-8%) and TEMP was above average (+0.2℃). Both RADPAR and BIOMSS were close to the 15-year average. The national NDVI development graph showed that overall crop conditions were below the 5-year average in July and August and returned to the 5-year average in September and October. These drops in August might have been due to cloud cover in the satellite images. The spatial NDVI pattern showed that 26.2% of the cultivated area were close to average and 24.6% were below average during the whole period. 49.3% had a big drop in August and recovered to average in September, mainly distributed in Gangetic Plain and the Sylhet basin. The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was 0.94, with most areas showing values higher than 0.8 and CALF had increased by 2%. Overall, the conditions were favorable  for the Aman rice production in Bangladesh.

Regional analysis

Bangladesh can be divided into four agro-ecological zones (AEZ): Coastal region, the Gangetic Plain, the Hills, and the Sylhet basin.

In the Coastal region, both RAIN and TEMP were above average (+6% and +0.2°C, respectively) while RADPAR was below average (-1%). The potential biomass was average. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI showed that crop conditions were below the 5-year average and returned to average in the end of October. The excessive rainfall in July might have delayed the sowing of Aman rice.  Cropping intensity (CI 145%) was lower than the 5YA by 8%. CALF was 91% and VCIx was 0.90. Overall, crop conditions were close to the average for this zone.

Both RAIN and RADPAR were below average (-11% and -1%, respectively) in the Gangetic Plain. TEMP and BIOMSS were above average (+0.1°C and 2%, respectively). The crop condition development graph based on NDVI showed that crop conditions were close to the 5-year average in September and October. During the monitoring period, CALF (96%) and CI (188%) were above average (+1% and +2%, respectively) and VCIx was 0.95. Crop conditions of this region were close to the average. 

The Hills and the Sylhet basin experienced similar conditions in this period. They recorded less rainfall (-10% and -9%, respectively). Both had warmer temperature (+0.3℃) and more sunshine (+1%) as compared to the 15YA, which were beneficial for the growth of rice in September and October. Potential biomass for the Hills was estimated 2% lower than the 15YA average and and the Sylhet basin was close to average. For the hills, CALF and CI were 98% (+1%) and 135% (+6%) with a favorable VCIx (0.98). CALF and CI were higher than the 5YA by 4% and 2% (91% and 171%, respectively) and VCIx was 0.95 for the Sylhet basin. Crop development based on NDVI also showed near or above average levels in September and Octorber in the Hills and the Sylhet basin. Based on the above information, favorable prospects for rice in these two zones can be expected.

Figure 3.9 Bangladesh’s crop condition, July - October 2021

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Rainfall Index

(e) Temperature Index

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA(left) and NDVI profiles (right)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Coastal region

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Gangetic plain

(i)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Hills

(j)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Sylhet basin

Table 3.9 Bangladesh’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,  July-October 2021

 Table 3. 10 Bangladesh’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA,  July-October 2021