The reporting period includes the harvesting of spring wheat from August to September and the planting of winter wheat in October. The nationwide rainfall amount was 260 mm, 8% below the 15YA average. Temperature decreased slightly (14°C, -0.1°C) while radiation was somewhat above average (RADPAR, 812MJ/m², 3%). The potential biomass was below average (-5%). Agronomic conditions were generally favorable: good values of VCIx (0.89) and cropped arable land fraction (CALF, 100%) were observed. Rainfall was above average in September, but below average in October. Drier conditions in October may have facilitated the sowing of wheat and the harvest of maize crop.

The NDVI development graph indicates that crop condition had gradually recovered to the level of the 5-year average starting in August. Crop condition in about 90.2% of the cropped area was close to or above the 5-year average, in agreement with the national VCIx map. There was an apparent drop in NDVI profiles in some of the areas from August to September, the reason for which might be a shortage of rainfall during this period. According to its distribution map, VCIx was satisfactory in most cropped areas of the country (above 0.8), indicating fair crop prospects, while low values were scattered in the southern area.

Although agronomic indicators were generally favorable starting in August, below average rainfall in the northern and southern area caused temporary low soil moisture conditions. However, crop conditions in most areas of the country during the past months were generally close to the 5-year average, indicating average crop prospects.

Regional analysis

Regional analyses are provided for three agro-ecological zones (AEZ) defined by their cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, including Northern Belarus (028, Vitebsk, the northern area of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev), Central Belarus (027, Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev and Southern Belarus (029) which includes the southern halves of Brest and Gomel regions.

Northern Belarus recorded a radiation increase (+5%) combined with slightly higher temperatures (+0.1°C) and lower rainfall (-12%).  And potential biomass decreased by 7% below average. The VCIx had reached 0.91, and CALF had reached 100%. The NDVI development curve was generally near the average level. Conditions for winter wheat sowing were generally adequate.

Central Belarus also experienced more sunshine (+1%) and slightly lower temperature (-0.2°C) and increased rainfall (+1%). Similar to Northern Belarus, high CALF (100%) and VCIx (0.88) were also recorded. The NDVI growth curve was generally near the average trend from July to October. The potential biomass decreased by about 3%, and cropping intensity was also 4% below average, therefore winter wheat conditions in this area may need close monitoring.

Precipitation in Southern Belarus was below the 15YA average level (-10%), and the temperature was slightly lower by 0.2°C and radiation was increased by 3%. Potential biomass was expected to decrease by 6%. The CALF and the VCIx were 100% and 0.89 respectively. Conditions were generally favorable.

Figure 3.10 Belarus’s crop condition, July - October 2021.

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA              (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall time series  

(g) Temperature time series

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North Belarus)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Belarus)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South-west Belarus)

Table 3.11 Belarus’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2021.

Table 3.12 Belarus’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, July - October 2021.