This reporting period(July to October) covers the main growing period of wheat. Its harvest is still ongoing and will conclude by December. The harvest of maize in the North-east is also ongoing while the harvest of rice in north and northeast and the second maize in central and southern Brazil had concluded by August. The planting of the summer crops (maize, soybean, and rice) in Central and Southern Brazil started in October.

The 2020-2021 summer crops growing season was dominated by overall dry and warmer-than-usual weather in Brazil. The prolonged dry weather continued during the recent four months from July to October. CropWatch Agro-climatic Indicators (CWAIs) present below-average conditions with 27% lower rainfall, 0.8°C higher temperature and 3% above average radiation compared with the 15YA. Although the temperature and radiation were in general favorable for crops, the significantly below-average rainfall resulted in a 16% reduction of potential biomass. Dry weather conditions were widespread across central and southern Brazil. In contrast, most states in north and northwest Brazil received close-to-average rainfall. The extreme dry weather was observed in some major agricultural producing states such as Goias, Sao Paulo, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso Do Sul and Minas Gerais with over 50% negative rainfall anomalies. Accordingly, temperatures in those five major states were all well above average with more than 1.0ºC higher than the 15YA. Positive anomalies of radiation were observed in most states except for the Acre, Santa Catarina, and Rio de Janeiro where RADPAR was slightly below average. The largest positive departure of RADPAR occurred in Pernambuco and Sergipe at 8% above average. Low rainfall, high temperature and radiation resulted in severe water stress in central Brazil which is clearly indicated by the significant below average BIOMSS on the BIOMSS departure map. The meteorological drought conditions illustrated by the standard precipitation index map also confirmed the severe to extreme drought in most of central Brazil.

As reflected by the national rainfall profiles, the current monitoring period covers the end of the dry season and the start of the rainy season. During the dry season period from June to mid-September, the rainfall was close to average while it was below average in late-September and October. This indicates a late start of the wet season which might delay the sowing, emergence and early development of summer crops.

The crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Brazil presents below average values throughout the monitoring period due to water stress. The chart showing proportions of different crop condition categories from July to October 2021 presented increasing proportions of below-average crop condition from 9% in early September to 16% in late October which indicated the adverse effect of dry weather in Brazil. Spatially, crops in the north and northwest presented above-average NDVI as they benefited from the normal or above-average rainfall while NDVI in most other regions stayed at or below average according to the NDVI departure clustering maps and profiles. This pattern coincided with the abnormal weather pattern with wet condition in the north and northwest and extreme dry and hot weather in the center. Mato Grosso, Parana, Sao Paulo and Mato Grosso Do Sul suffered from prolonged dry weather conditions  resulting in significant negative NDVI departures (light green color in figure f). Accordingly, the VCIx map also presents low values (< 0.8) in central Brazil covering vast areas in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso Do Sul, Goias, Minus Gerias to Sao Paulo (figure b). It is noteworthy that the top wheat producing state Rio Grande do Sul presented above-average crop conditions, an indication of favorable wheat outputs in the state. At the national level, VCIx was 0.81 and CALF was 2% below the 5YA. At the annual base, cropping intensity increased by 7% indicating that the total cultivated crop area was at an above-average level.

All in all, crop conditions in Brazil were below average and the establishment of the summer crops was delayed due to the late start of the wet season. Wheat production in Parana was affected by drought, while Rio Grande do Sul benefitted from normal conditions and an above-average wheat production is estimated for the latter. Currently, the early summer crops suffered from a considerable soil moisture deficit. As it is still at early stage of the summer crops, their establishment will mainly depend on the weather conditions in the coming months.

Regional analysis

Considering the differences of cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, eight agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are identified for Brazil. These include the Central Savanna, the East coast, Parana River, Amazon zone, Mato Grosso zone, Southern subtropical rangelands, mixed forest, and farmland, and the Nordeste. Four AEZs including Central Savanna, Mato Grosso, Nordeste and Parana basin received significantly below-average rainfall (-43% to -81%) which was similar to the dry weather pattern at the national scale. Central Savanna and Nordeste received less than 50 mm rainfall during the last four months. Both temperature and radiation in each zone was higher than average with the largest temperature departure in Central Savanna by +1.5ºC and the largest radiation anomaly at +5% in Coast Zone. The overall dry and hot weather resulted in below-average BIOMSS in most zones except for Amazonas (5% above average) and Northeastern mixed forest and farmland (7% above average) where rainfall was slightly above average.

Maize in Northeastern mixed forest and farmland was at harvesting stage which almost concluded by the end October. Overall average weather conditions with 3% above average rainfall, 0.4 degree higher temperature and 1% above average RADPAR were observed in the zone, resulting in a 7% positive departure in BIOMSS. Thanks to the normal weather conditions, the highest VCIx value was observed in Northeastern mixed forest and farmland at 0.95. NDVI profile also presented overall average crop condition during the monitoring period. CALF in the region was 99%, close to the 5YA. Maize production in the region is estimated at average level.

Wheat is mostly cultivated in southern subtropical rangelands and the Parana basin. Located in the south of Brazil, the southern subtropical rangelands zone received the highest rainfall among the eight AEZs at 515 mm, but still at 15% below average level. Significantly above-average rainfall in August to September benefited wheat development and grain-filling, indicating a promising wheat yield in the region. The average VCIx in the region was 0.84 which was above average. Although the CALF in the regions was 1% below the 5YA, wheat production was still at above average levels estimated by CropWatch. Overall unfavorable conditions in the Parana basin hampered the wheat development although most wheat in the region was irrigated. Less farmland was used for wheat cultivation as reflected by the 5% below average CALF during the wheat growing period. Average VCIx value in the region was 0.77. CropWatch puts the wheat production in the region at below-average level.

Central savanna also produces some wheat, mostly distributed in eastern Goias and southerwestern Minas Gerais. As the region received only 33 mm precipitation during the four months, all wheat in the region is definitely irrigated. It was shown by the CALF indicator that wheat area in the region was 9% above average. High resolution satellite image also confirmed the expansion of wheat sown area in 2021 compared with 2020 (figure q). CropWatch estimates a favorable wheat production in the region.

For more indicators and detailed information, it is recommended to visit CropWatch Explore (http://cropwatch.com.cn/newcropwatch/main.htm).

Figure 3.11 Brazil crop condition, July-October 2021

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Maximum VCI

(c) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and rainfall profile (right) of Brazil

(d) Spatial distribution of NDVI departure clusters   (e) NDVI departure profiles corresponding to the clusters in figure d

(f) Potential biomass departure from 15YA

(g) Meteorological drought measured by standard precipitation index, August – October, 2021

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Amazon

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Central Savanna

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Coast zone

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Mato Grosso

(L) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Nordeste

(m) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Northeastern mixed forest and farmland

(n) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Parana basin

(o) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Southern subtropical rangelands

(p) Proportion of drought categories, July - October 2021

(q) More central pivot fields were cultivated with wheat in Central Savanna in 2021 (first) compared with 2020 (second)

Note: Planet imageries in June to August during the two years were used

Table 3.13  Brazil agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15 years average, July - October 2021

Table 3.14  Brazil agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5 years average, July - October 2021