During this monitoring period, the harvest of spring wheat was complete while the harvests of maize and soybean were underway. The sowing of winter wheat takes place in September and October. According to agroclimatic indicators, Canada experienced warmer weather in this period. The overall conditions in this region were below average until September. In the Prairies, conditions were unfavorable whereas in the Saint Lawrence basin, they were close to the five-year average. Overall, crop conditions were unfavorable.

Compared with the 15-year average, the temperature and radiation were above average by 1.2°C and 1%, respectively. Nevertheless, the significant drop of rainfall (RAIN -8%) led to a decrease of potential biomass (BIOMSS -5%). The rainfall profile indicates that the deficit of precipitation mainly occured in July and early August, which is the major growing season of summer crops. Accordingly, the crop conditions were below average in that period as shown in the NDVI development graph, after which precipitation gradually recovered to above-average levels, but yield reductions in wheat-producing areas were unavoidable. Spatially, the crop condition was always below average in middle and north of Saskatchewan and Alberta, which accounted for 39.0% of cropped land, as shown in the NDVI cluster map. For 35.6% of total cropped land (marked as yellow and deep green), the crop was below average before September and improved to be close to average at the end of the monitoring period. In other regions, accounting for 25.4% of total cropped area, the crop condition was above but close to average, mainly in Quebec and Ontario (Saint Lawrence basin). For the whole year, the crop intensity is 103%, an increase by 3% when compared with the 5YA. The national maximum VCI value was 0.84, while CALF was slightly below average (CALF -3%).  The overall conditions of the summer crops in Canada are assessed as below average.

Regional analysis 

The Prairies (area identified as 53 in the crop condition clusters map) and Saint Lawrence basin (49) are the major agricultural regions in Canada.

The Prairies is the main food production area in Canada. However, it suffered from dry weather conditions in this reporting period. The rainfall was significantly below average (RAIN 187, -24%) , while the temperature and radiation were slightly above average (TEMP +1.6℃; RADPAR +3%). According to the rainfall profile in the Prairies, rainfall was significantly below average in July and September. The deficit of rainfall led to a below-average potential production (BIOMSS -11%). The major crops in this region are winter wheat and spring wheat. According to the NDVI development graph and NDVI profile, crop conditions were below average before September and improved to be close to average by the end of the monitoring period. The negative departures during the growing season may have been caused by a rainfall deficit and they may also affect wheat yields. So, the crop condition in this region is unfavorable.

The conditions in the Saint Lawrence basin were slightly warmer (TEMP +0.9°C) and more humid (RAIN +2%) than the 15YA, while radiation was slightly below average (RADPAR -1%). This led to a close-to-average estimate for potential biomass (BIOMSS +2%). According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were close to average during the whole monitoring season. All in all, crop conditions were close to the five-year average. 

Figure 3.12 Canada's crop condition July-October 2021

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA   (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall time series                                      (g) Temperature time series 

(h)Time-series rainfall profile  in Prairies       (i) Time-series rainfall profile in Saint    Lawrence   basin

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Canadian Prairies region (left) and Saint Lawrence basin region (right))

Table 3.15. Canada's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,  July-October 2021

Table 3.16. Canada agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, July-October 2021