The main food crops in Ethiopia are Teff, wheat, barley and maize. The monitoring period is from July to October and encompasses the main growing and developmental seasons of all Meher crops. It was pointed out in the last report that delayed planting and armed conflict negatively affected crop production in Ethiopia. The situation is slightly different in this report. On the one hand, the idling of cropland due to armed conflict continued in Tigray, but on the other hand, the delayed sowing elsewhere did not have a significant impact on crop growth and development, and crops grew well, aided by generally favorable rainfall conditions.

At the national level, cumulative precipitation (RAIN -5%), average temperature (TEMP -0.2°C) and photosynthetically active radiation (RADPAR -2%) decreased slightly, as compared to the average of the last 15 years. The cumulative potential biomass (BIOMSS) decreased by 3%. As we can see from crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the effects of delayed crop sowing were still present in July, with NDVI values below the 5-year average. But thanks to abundant precipitation and suitable temperatures during the subsequent months, the NDVI values returned to the average levels. The maximum VCI graph also confirms this fact, as almost the whole country has a maximum VCI greater than 0.8. The spatial distribution of NDVI profiles reveals that the areas affected by the delayed sowing in July and early August are mainly located in the Oromiya and Southern Nations region. However, the NDVI values subsequently recovered to close to average levels. In general, crops are growing well in most regions of Ethiopia and CropWatch estimates favorable outputs for the summer crops, except for Tigray, where farmland was left idle due to the armed conflict.

Regional analysis

In the Semi‐arid pastoral areas, a typical livestock production zone, cumulative precipitation, mean temperature and photosynthetically active radiation were close to the 15-year average (RAIN +4%, TEMP +0.2°C, RADPAR -3%) and cumulative potential biomass increased by 11%. At the same time, the NDVI values in the region were around the 5-year average for the reporting period. The maximum VCI was 0.86. Compared to the 5-year average, CALF increased by 16%. Cropping index was 100%, which means single-cropping in the region. Overall, the outlook for livestock production is favorable in the region.

In the Southeastern Mendebo highlands zone, the CropWatch indicators are similar to the overall national situation. Cumulative precipitation (RAIN -4%), mean temperature (TEMP -0.3ºC) and photosynthetically active radiation (RADPAR -2%) were slightly lower than the 15YA. This resulted in a slight 7% decrease in cumulative potential biomass. The NDVI values were slightly below the 5-year average. Cropping index was 123%. In general, crop conditions in the region were average.

In South-eastern mixed maize zone, precipitation (RAIN +22%) and sunshine (RADPAR +0%) were adequate, temperature (TEMP -0.3°C) was suitable and cumulative potential biomass was higher than the average (+6%). The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that NDVI values fluctuated above or below the 5-year average after mid-August. The maximum VCI was 0.91 and CALF was 97%, equal to the 5-year average. Cropping index was 119%.  CorpWatch estimates a favorable condition for autumn grain production in the region.

In the Western mixed maize zone, maize is the most important crop planted in the Meher season. The cumulative precipitation (RAIN -2%), average temperature (TEMP -0.4°C) and photosynthetically active radiation (RADPAR +1%) in the area were close to the 5-year average and estimated cumulative biomass was close to the 15-year average (-4%). The maximum VCI is 0.96 and CALF remains unchanged. Cropping index was 129%. The crops were in favorable conditions according to the CropWatch indicators.

The northern arid area is an agricultural area in northern Ethiopia. Due to the war, the cropped arable land fraction was almost zero and a severe food shortage is developing.

Figure 3.15 Ethiopia’s crop condition, July-October 2021

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                              (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                   (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                                                (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Semi‐arid pastoral (left) South‐eastern Mendebo highlands (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South‐eastern mixed maize zone (left) and South‐eastern mixed maize zone (right))

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern arid area)

Table 3.21 Ethiopia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July-October 2021

Table 3.22. Ethiopia’s agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA,July-October 2021