The dry season maize and the second rice were the main cereals being produced during this monitoring period. Their harvest began in October. The planting of main rice crop also started in October. CropWatch agroclimatic indicators showed that temperature (TEMP +0.2°C), precipitation (RAIN +20%) and radiation (RADPAR +2%) were above the 15YA. The potential biomass production was above average (BIOMSS +12%).

According to the national NDVI development graph, crop conditions were slightly below the 5YA during this monitoring period. NDVI clusters and profiles showed that crop conditions for 61.9% of arable land were close to average or above average, mostly located in Java, Sumatra and West Papua. About 32.7% of arable land, located in Kalimantan, Sumatra, Molucca, Bandung, West Papua, were at first significantly below average but improved after October. The large negative departures can be attributed to cloud cover in the satellite images. The area of cropped arable land (CALF 99%) in the country was comparable to the 5YA and the VCIx value was 0.95. Cropping intensity (CI -1%) was near the 5YA.  The national production is anticipated to be above average during the whole monitoring period.

Regional analysis

CropWatch focuses on four agro-ecological zones, namely Sumatra (92), Java (90), Kalimantan and Sulawesi (91) and West Papua (93), among which the former three are relevant for crops cultivation. The numbers of the zones correspond to the labels on the VCIx and NDVI profile maps. Java is the country’s main agricultural region.

In the Java region, precipitation (RAIN +32%), temperature (TEMP +0.5°C) and radiation (RADPAR +3%) were above the 15YA, which may have resulted in the potential biomass production increase of 27%. According to the NDVI development graph, crop condition was close to the 5YA. And cropping intensity (CI +6%) was above the 5YA. Overall, crop conditions in this region are expected to be above average.

Kalimantan and Sulawesi experienced rainy conditions. Precipitation (RAIN +32%) was above average, whereas temperature (TEMP +0°C) was close to average and radiation (RADPAR -1%) was below the 15YA, which brought an increase in the potential biomass production (BIOMSS +14%). As shown in NDVI development graphs, crop conditions were below average in mid-August and mid-September, but close to average at other times. Cropping intensity (CI -2%) was below the 5YA. Crop conditions in this region were assessed as above average.

In Sumatra, the agroclimatic indices, precipitation (RAIN +7%), temperature (TEMP +0.2°C) and radiation (RADPAR +2%), were near average during the reporting period. They resulted in an increase in the potential biomass production (BIOMSS +5%). According to NDVI development graphs, crop conditions were slightly below the 5YA. In addition, cropping intensity (CI -1%) was below the 5YA. Crop conditions in Sumatra are expected to be above average.

Figure 3.19 Indonesia’s crop condition, July–October 2021

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles                        (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall profile

(g) Time series temperature profile

(h) Proportion of NDVI anomaly categories compared with 5YA

(i) Proportion of VHIn categories compared with 5YA

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Java)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Kalimantan-Sulawesi)

(l) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Sumatra)

Table 3.29 Indonesia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July – October 2021

Table 3.30 Indonesia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, July – October 2021