The harvest of summer crops (irrigated potatoes and rice) was almost over by the end of August, while winter crops (wheat and barley) started to be sown in September. According to the NDVI-based crop condition development graph, the crop conditions in Iran during this whole monitoring period were worse than the 5-year average. The photosynthetically active radiation was 1% below average. The average temperature was 0.1℃ above average, whereas the accumulative rainfall was up by 21%. The potential biomass was 2% higher than the 15-year average. The national maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was 0.45, while the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was 6% smaller than the average of the past 5-years. 

The NDVI spatial patterns show that from July to October, 3.7% (marked in blue) and 19.5% (marked in red) of the cropped area had above or slightly above the 5-year average crop conditions throughout the whole monitoring period. The remaining cropped area experienced below-average crop conditions during the whole monitoring period. Four percent of the croped area (marked in orange) had the worst below-average crop conditions, mainly located in some parts of Mazadaran, Golestan, and Khuzestan. The spatial pattern of maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was in accord with the spatial distribution of the NDVI profiles. Although crop production during this period relies on irrigation, the generally drier-than-usual conditions had a negative impact on production. The prolonged drought will also have a negative impact on the sowing and establishment of rainfed winter wheat, which is mainly grown in the north-west of the country and Fars province.

Regional Analysis 

Based on farming system, climate, and topographic conditions, Iran can be subdivided into three regions, two of which are the main areas for crop production, namely the semi-arid to the subtropical hilly region in the west and the north and the coastal lowland in the arid red sea plain area. 

In the semi-arid to the subtropical hilly region in the west and the north, the cumulative precipitation during the monitoring period was 77 mm, 16% higher than average. Temperature was near average and photosynthetically active radiation was slightly below the 15YA (-1%) . The potential biomass was 2% lower than average. Crop conditions were below the 5-year average. The proportion of cultivated land was 11%, which was 6% higher than the 5YA. Cropping intensity (CI) was slightly above the 5YA (+3%). The average VCIx for this region was 0.47, indicating an unfavorable crop prospect.

In the coastal lowland in the arid red sea plain area, the temperature was 0.4℃ above average. Although the accumulated precipitation was 219% above average, the total was only 35 mm. The photosynthetically active radiation was average. The potential biomass was 50% higher than the 15-year average. Crop conditions were generally around the 5-year average. During the monitoring period, CALF was 2% below the 5YA, while CI was 103% (2% below the 5YA). The value of VCIx was 0.37, also indicating unfavorable crop prospects. 

Figure 3.21. Iran' s crop condition, July‐October 2021

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Rainfall profile

(e) Temperature profile

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA            (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (semi-arid to the subtropical hilly region in the west and the north)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (coastal lowland in the arid red sea plain area)

Table 3.103. Iran’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2021

Table 3.104. Iran’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA and 15YA, July - October 2021