During this reporting period, winter wheat harvest was completed in July and the new crop was sown in October. Based on the agroclimatic and agronomic indicators, the crop conditions in Italy were slightly below the 5-year average during this reporting period.

At the national level, rainfall (-6%) and solar radiation (RADPAR -1%) were below the 15YA. The temperature was unchanged. Precipitation in July and September was near average, which was favorable for wheat growth. Potential biomass production was 5% below average. CALF was 82%, and VCIx was 0.71. Except for a few areas in the south and central part of the country, the VCIx was above 0.80 for most of the cultivated land. The crop condition development graph indicates that NDVI was below average in this reporting period. In summary, the overall crop conditions during this period were near average. 

About 15.7% of the crops (areas in blue color), mainly located in the north Italy (Piemonte and Lombardia), showed a positive departure from the 5YA from July to October. 12.8% of arable land experienced below-average crop conditions (areas in red color), scattered in Umbria, Molise and Marche. About 22.8% of arable land (mainly in Lombardia, Lazio and Sardegna) experienced above-average crop conditions between July and August, below-average conditions between August and October. On about 22.4% of arable land, NDVI was near average in September, and then below average in October. For the remaining 26.2% of arable land, NDVI remained below average in July and August, and above average in September and October. 

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, four sub-national regions can be distinguished for Italy. These four regions are East coast, Po Valley, Islands and Western Italy.

East coast (mainly in Puglia, Marche and Abruzzi) experienced below-average rainfall (RAIN -23%), unchanged temperature and unchanged solar radiation. The precipitation was below average in early August and September. The potential biomass production showed a decrease (BIOMSS -9%). VCIx was 0.59. The crop condition development graph indicates that NDVI was below the average of the past five years. The Cropping Intensity was 111%. 

Crop production in the Po Valley (mainly in Piemonte, Lombardia and Veneto) was affected by slightly lower rainfall (RAIN -2%) and uchanged temperature and solar radiation. BIOMSS was below the 15YA by 5% and VCIx reached 0.83. The Cropping Intensity was 110%. The crop condition development graph indicates that the crop condition was near average during the entire reporting period. According to the agro-climatic indicators, a near-average output can be expected.

The Islands recorded a above-average precipitation (RAIN +26%) and temperature (TEMP +1°C). RADPAR was slightly below average (-1%). BIOMSS increased by 6% compared with the 15YA. The maximum VCI was only 0.59, the lowest among the four AEZs in Italy. The Cropping Intensity was 104%, which is the lowest in the four regions.  NDVI was very close to average throughout the monitoring period. The crop production in this region is expected to be close to average.

In Western Italy, RAIN (-16%) and RADPAR (-1%) were all below average. The TEMP was unchanged. Although the precipitation was below average, it was sufficient for the growth of winter wheat in April and May, and the biomass production potential decreased in this region by 1%. The Cropping Intensity was 123%, which is the highest in the four regions. The NDVI was slightly below average. VCIx reached 0.69. CropWatch expects an average production.

Figure 3.24 Italy’s crop condition, July 2021- October 2021

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP (Italy).                      

(c) Maximum VCI

(d)Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles. 

(e) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP (East Italy).

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP (Po Valley).

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP (Ialands)

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP (West Italy).

Table 3.45 Italy's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July-October 2021

Table 3.46 Italy's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July-October 2021