This report covers the growth and harvest of spring wheat In Kazakhstan. The crop conditions were generally below average from July to October. Compared to the 15-year average, accumulated rainfall and radiation were above average (RAIN +23%, RADPAR +1%), while temperature was below average (TEMP -0.3°C). The dekadal precipitation was above the 15-year maximum in early and mid-July. The dekadal temperature reached the 15-year maximum in early July, while in October, it dropped by 4.5°C below average. 

The national average maximum VCI index was 0.64 and the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) was below the 5YA by  26%. The cropping intensity (CI) was slightly below average by 1%. The spatial VCIx map matched well with the national crop condition development graphs. About 79.5% of croplands in most of the northern and central regions experienced unfavorable crop conditions from July to August. About 21.5% of croplands, which were mainly distributed in the north of Pavlodar and Shyghys Kazakhstan states, experienced favorable crop conditions from July to September. Although there was above-average railfall in July,  the drier-than-usual conditions from April to June had a negative impact on the growth of spring wheat.  Therefore, the spring wheat production was below average, as indicated by the NDVI curves which trended below the 5YA and last year's data.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, four sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Kazakhstan, among which three are relevant for crop cultivation: the Northern region (112), the Eastern plateau and Southeastern region (111) and the South region (110).

The Northern region is the main spring wheat production area. Although the accumulated rainfall was above average by 20%, the rainfall deficit in the last monitoring season had a significant negative impact on wheat growth. According to NDVI profiles, crop conditions were below average during the monitoring period. The average VCIx for this region was 0.60, and the proportion of cultivated land was 31% lower than the average.  The cropping intensity (CI) was slightly below average by 1%. The spring wheat production is estimated to be below average.

The Eastern plateau and Southeastern region had the largest positive precipitation departure (RAIN +24%) among the three regions, while temperature was below average (TEMP -0.3°C). Crop conditions in this region were below average during this reporting period. The average VCIx for this region was 0.76, and CALF was below average by 9%. The cropping intensity (CI) was close to the five-year average. Outputs for spring wheat are unfavorable.

The South region received 42 mm of rainfall, which was the lowest among the three regions. Due to the deficit of rainfall (RAIN -24%), the potential biomass decreased by 13%. The average VCIx for this region was 0.64 and CALF was below average by 22%. The cropping intensity (CI) was near average. The NDVI profiles show poor crop condition in this season. The lower soil moisture due to the rainfall deficit indicate unfavorable conditions for the sowing of winter crops in this region.  

Figure 3.23 Kazakhstan's crop condition, July-October 2021

(a) Phenology of major crop

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Rainfall Index 

(e) Temperature Index

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                               (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North region)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern plateau and Southeastern region)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South region)

Table 3.37 Kazakhstan agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, July- October 2021

Table 3.38 Kazakhstan, agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA,  July- October 2021