Kenya has two rainy seasons. The long rainy season lasts from March to May and the short rainy season lasts from October to December. Maize can be grown during the long and short rains, whereas wheat is grown during the long rains only. During this reporting period, the long rain maize and wheat were harvested, and the short rain maize was at the sowing stage.

At the national scale, precipitation was 228 mm, 34% below average. Temperature and radiation was close to average. Due to the shortage of rainfall, the BIOMSS was 13% lower than average.  At the sub-national level, almost all regions received less rainfall. The NDVI development graph at the national level shows lower-than-average NDVI values from July to October, it indicates crop growth conditions were significantly below average. This was mainly due to a significant decrease in rainfall. According to the NDVI clusters and the corresponding NDVI departure profiles, western Kenya accounting for 45.6% of national cropland (areas in green color) had near-average NDVI values, while other areas showed significant deviations in crop growth. This was in agreement with the maximum VCI graph which shows relatively low VCI between 0.5 and 0.8 in the central and southeastern regions. In general, crops in Kenya were affected by the drought, with the exception of the north-western region.

Regional analysis

The largest negative departure in RAIN were observed in the Eastern coastal region, with 0.3°C above average TEMP and 5% above average RADPAR. The shortage of rainfall resulted in a 9% drop of BIOMSS and significant drop of NDVI compared with the 5YA throughout the monitoring period. The drought conditions also resulted in a reduction of crops planted area as indicated by a 24% drop in CALF compared to the 5YA. The maximum VCI was only 0.61. The Cropping Intensity was 143%, which was the highest in the four regions. In general, the crop condition were unfavorable in the coastal area with poor prospect for livestock and crop production.

The Highland agriculture zone recorded 248 mm of rain, which was below the 15YA (-31%). Although temperatures and RADPAR were close to average, significantly lower precipitation resulted in significant reductions in biomass (-13%). The NDVI was slightly below the 5YA from July to October. The maximum VCI value recorded was 0.71. The CALF was reduced (-13%) to 71%. The Cropping Intensity was 142%. Overall, crop growth has been severely affected by drought conditions in the upland agricultural areas where rainfall was below average.

In Northern rangelands region, the precipitation was below average at 173 mm (-34%). Temperature was close to the 15YA, whereas RADPAR was above average (+2%). BIOMSS was below average (-12%). The below-average trend of its crop condition development graph indicates that the region was affected by drought. The maximum VCI was only 0.58, the lowest among the four AEZs in Kenya. Furthermore, the CALF was reduced (-25%) to 48%. The Cropping Intensity was 139%. All in all, the situation of crop growth in this area was very unfavorable.

The Southwest region includes the districts Narok, Kajiado, Kisumu, Nakuru, and Embu. Precipitation was at 309 mm，41% below average. The following indicator values were observed: TEMP 19.1°C (-0.1°C); RADPAR (-3%) and BIOMSS (-17%) both decreased. CALF was slightly increase and VCIx was 0.85. NDVI values generally closely followed the five-year average. Despite the large variation in precipitation, its CALF and RADPAR were stable and the VCIx value remained at a level of 0.85. The Cropping Intensity was 138%, which is the lowest in the four regions. This indicates normal crop growth in this region.

Figure 3.24 Kenya's crop condition, July-October 2021

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                          (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                            (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall                                                                                   (g) Time series temperature

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, The eastern coastal region(left), The Highland agriculture zone(right)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the northern region with sparse vegetation (left), South-west (right)

Table 3.40 Kenya's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July -October 2021

Table 3.41 Kenya's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, July - October 2021