Maize is the most important crop grown in Mexico. In the rainfed production regions of the country, maize reached maturity in September and October. The sowing of irrigated maize started in September. Its main production region is in Sinaloa, in the northwest. Winter wheat sowing begins in November. Both soybean and rice reached maturity by the end of this reporting period.

The CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that TEMP and RAIN were close to average and RADPAR was above average (+3%). Accordingly, BIOMSS increased by 1% as compared to the 15YA. CALF was close to average and reached 91% and cropping intensity decreased by 3%. Favorable weather conditions and relatively high CALF made the VCI reach 0.92.

In terms of Agro-climatic conditions, the national precipitation and temperature was at the average level during the monitoring period of this bulletin. According to figure b, crop growth was also at an average level. According to VCI spatial patterns, very high values (greater than 1.0) occurred mainly in eastern coastal areas, including Tamaulipas. Extremely low values (less than 0.5) occurred in the northeast border area, mainly in the Nuevo León, Coahuila de Zaragoza and western coastal areas.

As shown in the spatial NDVI profiles and distribution map, 20.8% of the total cropped areas were above average during the entire monitoring period, mainly distributed in the northeast coastal and border areas. 50.7% of the total cropped areas were at an average level. Only 7.8% of the total cropped areas were below average, mainly in Sinaloa. In addition, 14.1% of the total cropped areas were at an average level in July and August and below average in September and October. This phenomenon may be caused by the harvest stage of maize and rice and other summer crops.

Overall, the crop conditions were at an average level. Although the crop land was affected by severe drought in winter, the agro-climatic conditions gradually returned to the normal level by April, so the impact of drought on crop growth was limited and a favorable production of the summer crops is estimated.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, Mexico is divided into four agro-ecological regions. They include the Arid and semi-arid region (128), Humid tropics with summer rainfall (129), Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (130) and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (131). Regional analyses of crop conditions provide more details for the production situation in Mexico.

The Arid and semi-arid region, located in northern and central Mexico, accounts for about half of planted areas in the country. According to the NDVI development graph, crop condition in this region was close to average before September. CALF increased by 3% compared with the 5YA. The agro-climatic condition showed that RAIN increased by 3% and TEMP decreased by 0.1°C and RADPAR increased by 4%. The Arid and semi-arid region was the most drought affected region and the VCIx was 0.88.

The region of Humid tropics with summer rainfall is located in southeastern Mexico. Conditions were favorable. RAIN was slightly below average (-2%), TEMP was 0.2℃ warmer and RADPAR increased by 5% and BIOMSS increased by 3%. As shown in the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were close to average from July to October. The VCIx (0.93) confirmed favorable crop conditions in this region.

The Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains is situated in central Mexico. According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were close to average in July and below average in August, but then recovered to average levels. The agro-climatic conditions were close to the average level. RAIN increased by 4%, TEMP increased by 0.1°C , and RADPAR increased by 1% compared to the 15YA. BIOMSS was also near average and CALF was 99%. Favorable meteorological conditions and high CALF made VCIx reach 0.96.

The region called Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains is located in southern Mexico. During the monitoring period, crop conditions were below average in August and closed to average in other months as shown by the NDVI time profiles. Agro-climatic conditions were closed to average levels, including RAIN (+1%), TEMP (+0.2℃) and RADPAR (+3%). The VCIx for the region was 0.95 and BIOMSS was near average.

Figure 3.5 Mexico’s crop condition, July-October 2021

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                                                                           (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                                    (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid and semi-arid regions (left) and Humid tropics with summer rainfall (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (left) and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (right))

Table 3.1 Mexico’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, July – October 2021

Table 3.2 Mexico’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, July – October 2021