This reporting period was dominated by the monsoon season. It will be followed by the drier and cooler winter months. The main rice growing season started in June and ended in October. The planting of maize and wheat started in September. According to the CropWatch monitoring results, crop conditions in Myanmar were below average during this monitoring period.

Compared to the 15YA, RAIN was lower (-13%) while TEMP was higher (+0.6ºC), and RADPAR was up by 7%. As a result, BIOMSS was 2% below the average. The utilization of cropland was close to the 5YA. NDVI values were below average during the entire period, especially in early August and late September. The maximum VCI during this period was 0.94.

A majority of the country’s croplands suffered from slightly below-average crop conditions during the period. The above-average crop condition with positive NDVI departures only occurred in August. These areas accounted for 66.8% of the cropland and were mainly located in Mandalay Regions, as well as scattered areas over Regions of Bago, Ayeyarwady, Yangon, Tanintharyi and States of Shan, Kayin and Mon. The abnormally low NDVI departure values could be caused by cloudy weather. The maximum VCI showed high values over most regions of the country.

Regional analysis

Three sub-national agro-ecological zones (AEZ) can be distinguished for Myanmar based on the cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions. They are the Central plain, the Hills and the Delta and Southern Coast regions.

The Central Plain had a marked rainfall deficit (RAIN -26%), with RADPAR up by 8% and TEMP up by 0.9ºC compared to the 15YA. BIOMSS was 5% lower than the 15YA.  CALF showed that 98% of the cropland was fully utilized, and it was 1% above the 5YA. NDVI was consistently below the 5YA level during the whole period. The VCIx was 0.94. Crop conditions for this region were slightly below average.

The Hills region also had a lack of rainfall, at 1593mm, with RAIN 12% below the 15YA. RADPAR was 9% above average and TEMP increased by 0.5 ºC. BIOMSS was close to the 15YA. The cropland was almost fully used (CALF 99%). The NDVI values were below the 5YA during the whole period. The VCIx was 0.96. Crop conditions are assessed as below the 5YA level.

The Delta and Southern Coast region had the highest RAIN (1849 mm) compared with the other two sub-national regions, but it was still 8% below the 15YA. TEMP and RADPAR increased by 0.3ºC and 5% respectively. BIOMSS was close to the 15YA. CALF was comparable to the 5YA and VCIx was 0.92. The NDVI values were below the 5YA except for July and late August, when they were near average. Crop conditions in this region were below average.

Figure 3.30 Myanmar crop condition, July – October 2021

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Rainfall Profile

(d) Temperature Profile

(e)  Maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) in Myanmar

(f)  Spatial NDVI patterns compared to %5YA

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in central plain region

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in hills region

(i)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in delta and southern coast region

Table 3.51 Myanmar agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July – October 2021

Table 3.52 Myanmar agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July – October 2021