The monitoring period in the analysis coincides with the dry period in Mozambique. This period covers mostly the land preparation for the 2021/2022 agricultural season. During the same period, the sowing of maize has started in southern Mozambique, followed by rice in late October. The agroclimatic indicators for this period reveal that except for the rainfall and potential biomass (RAIN +17% and BIOMSS +6%), the remaining indicators recorded a drop in about 0.3ºC and 2%, for temperature and radiation, respectively.

Nationwide, the NDVI development graph indicates average crop conditions during the entire monitoring period when compared to the average of the past five years. The maximum VCI recorded for this period was 0.87. The spatial distribution of VCIx across the country shows that better crop conditions were observed along the Limpopo and Zambezi River valleys, the Gùrué district (Zambézia province) and Nampula province where irrigation activities and annual crops can be found. Altogether, these regions account for 65.2% of the arable land. With the cropped arable land fraction increasing by 3% and Cropping Intensity about the average, overall, the crop conditions were favourable across the country.

Regional Analysis

Based on the national cropping system, topography and climate, CropWatch has subdivided Mozambique into five agroecological zones (AEZs) including the Buzi basin, Northern High-altitude areas, Low Zambezi River basin, Northern coast, and the Southern region.

A significant increase in rainfall (RAIN +34%) was recorded in the Buzi basin, while the temperature and radiation decreased by 0.5ºC and 4%. Combined, these conditions led to an increase in the potential biomass production in the region by 14%. The NDVI development graph indicates above-average crop conditions from early August until the end of the monitoring period. With CALF being situated near the average and Cropping Intensity increasing in 8%, the maximum VCI recorded for this region was 0.80.

Contrary to the Buzi basin, the rainfall in the Northern High-altitude areas recorded a significant drop by about 30% compared to the average of past fifteen years, followed by decreases in temperature (TEMP -0.1ºC), radiation (RADPAR -1%) and potential biomass (BIOMSS -6%). Even with these conditions, the NDVI development graph indicates close-to-average crop conditions during almost the entire monitoring period. Both the CALF and Cropping Intensity in this region increased by 5% and 1%, respectively, while the maximum VCI recorded was 0.84.

Increases in rainfall (RAIN +16%) were also observed in the Lower Zambezi River basin. Temperature and radiation recorded decreases of about 0.4ºC and 2%, respectively. The potential biomass production increased by 13%. According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were favourable compared to the average of the past five years. The region recorded an increase in CALF by 5% and the maximum VCI observed was 0.82.

Except for the potential biomass production (BIOMSS +4%), in the Northern coast, all the remaining agroclimatic indicators registered decreased (RAIN -1%, TEMP -0.1ºC, and RADPAR -1%). Crop conditions in this region were near the average of the past five years from July till late August, when the conditions dropped, remaining below the average till the end of the monitoring period. With CALF increasing by 1%, the maximum VCI was 0.89.

In the Southern region, rainfall increased by 19% while both temperature and radiation decreased by 0.5ºC and 4%. The potential biomass production in this region increased by 7% compared to the past fifteen years. These agroclimatic conditions led to above-average crop conditions during the entire monitoring period as indicated by the NDVI development graph. This region recorded the highest increase in CALF (CALF +7%). The maximum VCI in this region was 0.90. The region can expect good production prospects of the current maize and rice, which were planted in October.

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                          (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                       (e) NDVI profiles

 (f) National time-series rainfall profiles                                                                       (g) National time-series temperature profiles

(h) Proportion of NDVI anomaly categories compared with 5YA                               (i) Proportion of VHIm categories compared with 5YA

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Buzi basin (left), and Northern high-altitude areas (right)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Lower Zambezi River basin (left), and Northern coast region (right)

(l) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Southern region

Table 3.55. Mozambique's  agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July – October 2021

Table 3.56. Mozambique's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July – October 2021