This report covers the main rainy season in Nigeria, during which, maize , rice and other crops such as sorghum  are grown. In the northern region, the harvest of the main maize started in August. It was followed by the sowing of the second season maize, which will reach maturity in December or January. In the south, maize was harvested in July and August. The harvesting of rainfed rice was started in August, followed by that of irrigated rice two months later. 

The CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that the rainfall was below the 15YA (-32%) and the average temperature was higher than the 15YA (+0.7°C). Rainfall had stayed below the 15YA starting in late August. Solar radiation increased by 5%.  Due to the decline of rainfall, the BIOMSS was below the 15YA (-15%). The observed maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was 0.91 and the CALF was lower than the 5YA (-3%). 

According to the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the NDVI of the country was below the 5YA during the reporting period. The maximum VCI graph shows that both higher and lower values appeared mainly in the northern area. As shown in the spatial NDVI profiles and distribution map, 24.5% of the total cropped areas were above the 5YA from the middle July to the end of October. About 42.1% of the total cropped areas were below the 5YA from July to early August and near the 5YA from August to October in the northern area of the country. Overall, the crop conditions in most of the cropped areas were below average.

Regional Analysis

The analysis focuses on four major agroecological zones in the country, i.e., Sudan-Sahel savanna region across the northern region, Guinea savanna and Derived savanna within the central region and Humid forest situated towards the southern region.

The Sudan-Sahel savanna zone is located in northern Nigeria. The agro-climatic condition showed that rainfall decreased by 42% and the overall temperature had increased by 0.6°C. The radiation increased by 2%. The BIOMSS was below the 15YA (-18%). The CALF was 84% and the maximum VCI was 0.89. According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions in the zone were below average from July to August and near average from September to October.

The Guinea savanna region is predominantly located in the central region of the country. Compared to the 15YA, TEMP increased by 0.8°C, RAIN decreased by 42%, RADPAR was 4% above the 15YA, and BIOMSS was below the 15YA (-21%). The CALF was 99% and the maximum VCI was 0.91.  According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions in the region were below average from July to August and near average from September to October.

The Derived savanna region is a transition zone between the Guinea savanna and Humid forest zones. Rainfall decreased by 37% and the temperature increased by 0.7°C. The radiation increased by 7% compared to the 15YA and the BIOMSS decreased by 15% compared to the 15YA. The CALF was 99% and the maximum VCI was 0.95. According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions in the region were below average from July to September and near average in October.

In the Humid forest zone the precipitation is quite high as compared to other regions. The rainfall decreased by 16% and the average temperature increased about 0.3°C. The radiation increased by 8% and the BIOMSS was near the 15YA (-1%). The CALF was  99% and the maximum VCI was 0.94. According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions in the zone were below average throughout the monitoring period.

Figure 3.1 Nigeria's crop condition, July-October 2021

(a) Phenology of major crops 

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                             (c)Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI pattern compared to 5YA and NDVI profiles

(e) Time series temperature profile                                                   (f) Time series rainfall profile

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Left:Sudan-Sahel savanna, Right:Guinean savanna)

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Left:Derived savanna, Right:Humid forest)

Table 3.1 Nigeria’s agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA. July-October 2021

Table 3.2 Nigeria’s agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA. July-October 2021