This reporting period includes the production period for main maize and rice, which were harvested in October. It also covers the sowing of winter barley and wheat. 

RAIN was sharply below average (-35%), together with higher TEMP and RADPAR (0.3°C and 2% respectively), which resulted in a slight increase of estimated BIOMSS (+4%). CropWatch agro-climatic indicators were below average over the 15YA. The dekad rainfall was continuously below average for most dekads, except for second dekad in July, when it reached maximum levels. Especially the significantly drier-than-usual conditions in August caused unfavorable conditions for the production of summer crops, although most of them are irrigated. About 30% of the crop areas experienced drought in August, as shown in the VHIn graph. The fraction of cropped arable land was slightly above average (+1%).

As shown by the nationwide NDVI development graph, crop conditions were gradually getting better and reached average levels in early August, but stayed below average until middle of September due to low precipitation. According to the spatial NDVI patterns and profiles, 31.8% of the cropped areas presented continuously below-average conditions during the reporting period, which were mostly distributed in the North highland and Lower Indus basin. About 9.7% of cropland, concentrated in Timur Dan, north and west of Sukkur and southern Sindh, presented below-average conditions before early August but later recovered to average levels. At the annual scale, cropping intensity increased by 13% indicating that the total cultivated crop area was at an above-average level. All in all, crop production estimates for the summer crops are slightly below average.

Regional analysis

For a more detailed spatial analysis, CropWatch subdivides Pakistan into three agro-ecological regions based essentially on geography and agroclimatic conditions: the Lower Indus basin, the Northern highlands, and the Northern Punjab region.

RAIN was slightly below average (-3%)  and TEMP was above average by 0.2°C in the Lower Indus basin. The estimated BIOMSS was 18% above average. NDVI was below average in late July and August, and later recovered to above average llevels. The CALF value of 61% exceeds the average by 3% and the VCIx was 0.73. Overall, the situation for the region is below average.

Compared to average, in the Northern highland region, RAIN sharply decreased by 49%, RADPAR and TEMP were above average (+3% and +0.2°C respectively). BIOMSS decreased by 17%. The region also showed a low CALF of 56%, which was lower than the 5YA by 4%. The NDVI profile stayed below average during July and late August,  and subsequently recovered and exceeded the maximum in early August. In short, the situation for the region is assessed as below average.

In Northern Punjab region, which is the main agricultural region of Pakistan, recorded an above-average RAIN (+4%). TEMP and RADPAR were above average (+0.3°C and +1% respectively). The resulting BIOMSS was above average by 15%. The NDVI profile presented below-average conditions in early July and late August, mainly due to a slow start of the monsoon rains. Heavy rainfall in middle July and early September promoted crop growth and NDVI exceeded the maximum of the 5YA in late September. In addition, CALF in this area reached 84%, which was up by 5% compared to the 5YA, and VCIx was at 0.90. Overall, the crop production potential for the region is assessed as favorable.

Figure 3.23 Pakistan’s crop condition, July - October 2021

 (a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                         (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Lower Indus Basin)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Highland）

 (h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Punjab) 

Table 3.56. Pakistan agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure, July - October 2021

  Table 3.57. Pakistan agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure, July - October 2021