The monitoring period from July to October is the main time for harvest in Russia. Winter crops are harvested from late June to late July and spring crops are harvested from mid-August to late September, with July being the peak season. Sowing of winter crops begins in September. Therefore, weather conditions during the monitoring period are important for both spring and winter crops.

At the beginning of the period, rainfall was below average. By the end of August, precipitation decreased sharply. In early August and late September, there was a sharp increase in precipitation, which exceeded last year and the 15-year average.

Temperatures in Russia during the monitoring period from July to August exceeded last year and the 15-year average. At the end of August and until the end of the monitoring period the temperature was below the 15-year average and last year.

According to the national CropWatch data, NDVI during the monitoring period was below both the 5-year average and previous year. However, there were significant differences between regions: Above average crop conditions with VCIx above 0.8 are observed in Central and Black soil region with positive NDVI departure; South and North Caucasus regions also show positive NDVI departure with VCIx ranging from 0.5 to 1; Spring crop producing regions (Volga, Urals, Siberia) showed negative NDVI departure with VCIx ranging from <0.5 to 0.8 due to unfavourable weather conditions.

In regions with positive NDVI departure the crop yield is expected to be above or at the level of the previous year. In Volga and Ural regions the yield of spring crops is likely to be lower than in the previous year.

Regional analysis  

South Caucasus

Rainfall was 15% above the 15-year average. Temperature and RADPAR were less than average by 0.6°C and 1%, respectively. BIOMSS showed a negative deviation of 9%. CALF was higher by 14% relative to the 5-year average. In the South Caucasus, CI increased by 4%. VCIx was 0.90.

In July, the NDVI was equal to last year's value, but it gradually increased in early August and exceeded the 5-year highest in September and October. This is an indicator of good situation with winter crop sowing, and good crop status before the snow cover establishment.

Judging by the Cropwatch indicators, the wheat harvest of 2020-2021 would be bigger than last year's and the average of last 5 years.  It is expected that the harvest of summer crops will be equal to or slightly bigger than last year.

North Caucasus      

Rainfall was down by 2% and temperature was down by 0.6°C. RADPAR increased slightly by 1%, and BIOMSS increased by 4% relative to the 15-year average. CALF increased by 14%. In the North Caucasus, CI increased by 4%. VCIx was 0.91.

At the beginning of the monitoring period, the NDVI was equal to last year and the 5-year average. But in September the NDVI reached a 5-year highest and was equal to average until the end of October. It is quite likely that summer crop yield would be slightly higher than last year.

Central Russia

Rainfall was down by 12%. Temperature and RADPAR increased by 0.1°C and by 3% respectively. BIOMSS increased by 9%. In Central Russia, CI decreased by 3% and CALF was equal to the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.94.

From July to October, the NDVI was below last year and the 5-year average, only reaching the 5-year average in early September.

The yield of 2020-2021 winter crop should be below last year and 5-year average. The yields of spring and summer crops should show a similar trend. 

Central black soils area

Rainfall was 9% less than the 15-year average. Temperature was close to average. RADPAR and BIOMSS increased by 3% and 9% respectively. In the Central black soils area, CI decreased by 3% and CALF was equal to the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.88.

From July through mid-August, NDVI was below 5-year average, but in September and October it reached the last year's value.

Summer crop yield should be slightly below the average. 

Middle Volga

Rainfall decreased by 21% relative to the 15-year average, which is the maximum deviation in Russia. Temperature decreased by 0.1°C. RADPAR and BIOMSS increased by 7% and 9% respectively. CALF decreased by 5% relative to the 5-year average. In the Middle Volga, CI decreased by 5%. VCIx at 0.76 showed the lowest value for Russia over the period.

NDVI was well below the 5-year average and last year, which was due to a decrease in rainfall in the Middle Volga.

The yields of winter, spring, and summer crop are all expected to be below the average of last year and the 5-year average. The 2021-2022 winter crop sowing campaign is likely to be delayed due to low soil moisture content.

Ural and western Volga

In the Ural and western Volga, rainfall was down by 16% relative to the 15-year average, while temperature increased by 0.2°C. RADPAR and BIOMSS increased by 8% and 6% respectively. CALF and CI decreased by 3% and 1% relative to the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.81.

Throughout the monitoring period, NDVI was below the 5-year average and the last year. At the end of October, NDVI was equal to average. The decrease in NDVI was due to a decrease in rainfall and an increase in temperature.

The yields of winter, spring, and summer crops are all expected to be below last year and the 5-year average. The 2021-2022 sowing campaign is likely to be close to normal.

Western Siberia

In Western Siberia, rainfall increased by 17% over the 15-year average. Temperature was down 0.2°C. Both of RADPAR and BIOMSS increased by 2%. CALF and CI decreased by 1% relative to the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.92.

The NDVI in Western Siberia was equal to last year and the 5-year average.

There are very few winter crops in this region. The yield of spring and summer crops is expected to be slightly below the 5-year average and previous year.  

Middle Siberia

In Middle Siberia, rainfall and temperatures decreased by 19% and 0.1° C relative to the 15-year average, respectively. RADPAR and BIOMSS increased by 1% and 4% respectively. CALF decreased by 1% and CI increased by 4%. VCIx was 0.95.

In Middle Siberia, NDVI was higher than the 5-year maximum from July to August, andwas equal to the 5-year average from September to October.

The yields of spring, and summer crops are all expected to be above the 5-year average and previous year.

Eastern Siberia

In Eastern Siberia, compared to the 15-year average, rainfall decreased by 31% , while temperature increased by 0.1°C. RADPAR and BIOMSS increased by 10% and 4% respectively. CALF decreased by 1% and CI increased by 13%. The VCIx was 0.95.

NDVI was close to the 5-year average from July to October.

According to the graphs, the yields of spring and summer crops are all expected to be below the 5-year average.

Figure 3.38 Russia’s crop condition. July-October 2021

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                  (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern Caucasus and Northern Caucasus)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Russia and Central Chernozemic region)

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Middle Volga and Ural and western Volga region)

(i)             Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in the Eastern Siberia and the Middle Siberia

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Western Siberia)

(h) Rainfall index

(i) Temperature index  

Table 1. Russia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions. Current season’s values and departure from 15YA. July - October 2021

Table 2. Russia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions. Current season’s values and departure from 5YA. July-October 2021