This monitoring period covers the end of the harvest period of winter wheat in July, as well as the growing seasons for rice and maize. Winter wheat sowing started in October.  Nationwide, RAIN (-20%) and temperature  (-0.6℃) were below average, whereas RADPAR (+0.1%) was slightly above the 15YA. BIOMSS was 14% below average. During this monitoring period, especially in mid-August and October, lack of rainfall has caused a negative impact on the growth of crops and caused a biomass decrease.

The NDVI-based crop condition development graph indicates below-average crop conditions during the whole monitoring period. The national average VCIx was 0.76.  The southeastern, southern, and western provinces, such as Sanliurfa, Mardin, and Adana, experienced low VCIx values ranging from 0.5 to 0.8, indicating that crops in those regions were not satisfactory. Low VCIx (< 0.5), which indicates below-average crop conditions, was mainly observed for the central provinces such as Ankara, Yozgat and Kayseri. 

In terms of the NDVI spatial departure clustering map, the results confirmed the spatial pattern described above. Due to the impact of low rainfall in April and May, strong negative departures of NDVI were observed. As shown by the VHIn graph, some areas went through dry conditions in the reporting period. Germination and establishment of winter wheat is also negatively impacted. All in all, due to the drought impact, crop conditions were below average for Turkey.

Regional analysis 

The regional analysis includes four agro‐ecological zones (AEZ): the Black Sea area, Central Anatolia, Eastern Anatolia and Marmara Aegean Mediterranean lowland zone.

In the Black Sea zone, crop conditions were close to average. The rainfall was above average (RAIN +22%), while the temperature (TEMP) decreased by 1℃ and radiation decreased from the average (-6%). The cropped arable land fraction was 89%, 7% below average. The average value of VCIx was high at 0.81, the highest among all four AEZs of Turkey. Cropping intensity was at 111, 8.47% higher than average. The crop conditions are assessed to be close to normal.

In the Central Anatolian plateau, rainfall was far below average (RAIN -32%）during this monitoring period. TEMP (-0.8℃) and RADPAR (+0%) were close to the 15YA average, resulting in a decrease of the BIOMSS index (-17%). The average VCIx for this region was 0.62. The cropped arable land fraction was only 31%, a decrease by 10%. Cropping intensity was at 103, 1.12% higher than average. Crop conditions are assessed as below average. 

In Eastern Anatolia, rainfall was 5% below average, TEMP was 0.5℃ below average and RADPAR remained average. The lack of rainfall led to a decrease of biomass by 4%. The CALF was greatly lower at 24%, a 52% decrease compared to the average. With VCIx only at 0.46, cropping intensity 0.59% higher at 105, crop output is assessed to be below average. 

As indicated by the NDVI profile, in the Marmara Aegean Mediterranean lowland zone, the crop conditions were below average during the reporting period (BIOMSS -25%). RAIN was 48% below average, which is the largest decrease among the four AEZs. The temperature was slightly below average (TEMP -0.2℃) and radiation increased slightly (RADPAR +2%) but not enough to offset the impact of lower rainfall. VCIx was 0.71, and CALF was down 1% at 56%. Cropping intensity was 2% higher at 109. Production in this region is expected to be below average.

Figure 3.40 Turkey’s crop condition, July-November 2021

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) rainfall index

(e) temperature index

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                              (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Black Sea region)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Anatolia region)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Anatolia region)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Marmara_Agean_Mediterranean lowland region)

(l) Proportion of NDVI anomaly categories compared with 5YA

(m) Proportion of VHIm categories compared with 5YA

Table 3.71. Turkey's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July - November 2021

Table 3.72. Turkey's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, July - November 2021