This monitoring period covers the harvests of wheat in July and August, followed by maize in September and October. Winter wheat sowing started in September. 

According to the agroclimatic and agronomic indicators of CropWatch, this season in Ukraine was drier than usual, rainfall was 15% less,  temperature was 0.6℃ lower than the 15YA, and sunshine reached 998 MJ/m² (+4%). Nearly all cropland was cultivated (CALF reached 99%, +4%), cropping intensity was at 123% (+19%) and maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was 0.95, which indicated the conditions for the crops were favorable. Estimated biomass (BIOMSS, 610 g DM/m², -4%) at the national level was slightly below the 15YA. 

During this period, NDVI at the national level was generally above the 5YA, even exceeding the 5-year maximum before October. As shown in the spatial NDVI patterns, NDVI in about 85.8% area of cropland was above or close to the 5YA until September. However, an obvious depression of NDVI was observed in middle October, which could be attributed to the rainfall deficiency in October. Time series of rainfall profile suggested the amount of precipitation was less than one-third of the 15YA in this month and the proportion of drought area had risen to 40% accordingly. Spatial VCIx pattern showed crop conditions in most croplands of Ukraine were good (VCIx was between 0.8 and 1), especially favorable in Donetsk, Crimea and Odessa region. 

In summary, crop conditions in Ukraine were close to average and CropWatch estimates favorable production for wheat and maize. It is also noteworthy that the low rainfall at the end of the monitoring period is favorable for the drying and harvest of maize but has a negative impact on the germination and establishment of winter wheat.

Regional analysis

Regional analyses are provided for four agro-ecological zones (AEZ) defined by their cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions. They are referred to as Central wheat area with the Poltava, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad Oblasts; Northern wheat area with Rivne; Eastern Carpathian hills with Lviv, Zakarpattia and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts and Southern wheat and maize area with Mykolaiv, Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts.

All four AEZs shared a similar pattern of agroclimatic conditions. Compared to  the 15YA, the four zones received less rainfall from -3% in  Southern wheat and maize area to -33% in Eastern Carpathian hills. Cooler temperature was also detected, from 0.4°C lower in Northern wheat area to 0.7°C lower in Southern wheat and maize area. Radiation was close to average with the largest positive departures for Central wheat area and Northern wheat area at 5% above average. The below-average rainfall in October had no impact on maize yields. It may have helped its harvest, but may have had a negative impact on the early development of winter wheat.  Potential biomass showed a below-average level in most AEZs except for Southern wheat and maize area (0%), which had the smallest rainfall deficit (-4%).  Agronomic indicators suggest the crop conditions were favorable for all AEZs. Cropping intensity was higher (+16-21%).  CALF (0.99 to 1) and VCIx (0.92 to 0.98) indicate good crop prospects. 

Figure 3.41 Ukraine's crop condition,  July-October 2021

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                        (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall profile

(g) Time series temperature profile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central wheat area)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Carpathian hills)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern wheat area)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern wheat and maize area)

(l) Proportion of drought categories compared with 5YA

(m) Proportion of VHIm categories compared with 5YA 

Table 3.73 Ukraine's agro-climatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,  July-October 2021

Table 3.74 Ukraine's agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July-October 2021