The current reporting period (July to October) covers the mid- to late-growth stages of maize, rice, soybeans and the harvest period of spring wheat in the United States. The harvest of summer crops was almost completed by the end October. Overall, crop conditions were near the 5-year average.

Warm and wet weather prevailed in the United States, with higher rainfall (+22%), temperature (+0.4℃) and RADPAR (+2%) than the 15YA. Adequate precipitation effectively replenished soil moisture for crops at the late-growth stages, and warm weather created favorable conditions for photosynthetic processes, resulting in potential biomass being 11% higher than average at the national level. However, there were large differences among the regions, as discussed in the subsequent paragraphs. Significant increases in precipitation in the Northeast, Southeast, and Southwest resulted in local severe flooding events in some states, such as Tennessee (RAIN: +33%), Arizona (RAIN: +86%), and other states. Although some fields in these states were damaged by flooding, the increased precipitation effectively replenished soil moisture and was in general beneficial for summer crop growth.

As a whole, the national average cultivated arable land fraction (CALF) reached 86%, which was 2% below the 5YA, and the VCIx was 0.87, while the crop condition showed strong spatial heterogeneity. Thanks to the improved weather compared with the previous bulletins, crops had recovered from the stressed conditions during the previous months in parts of the Corn Belt, Northeast, Southeast, and Southwest. The VCIx was high in Alabama (0.97), Arizona (1.12), Georgia (0.98), Illinois (0.98), Indiana (0.97), Iowa (0.97), Mississippi (0.96), Ohio (0.98), and Tennessee (0.96). It's noteworthy that precipitation remained high during maturity and harvest stage.  Excessively wet soil conditions may have impacted harvest progress in some regions. Poor crop conditions were observed in some states on the North Plain and northwest region, including Washington, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota. Although increased precipitation was also observed in these areas during the monitoring period, the CALF still decreased by 9% to 18% and the maximum vegetation index (VCIx) ranged between 0.57 and 0.73. This region had experienced drought conditions already during the previous monitoring period. 

In short, the favorable weather conditions in the Midwest and South helped boost production of maize, rice and soybean, whereas wheat, grown in the Western and northern states, suffered from the severe drought conditions. 

Figure ** , United States crop condition, July to October 2021 

Figure.X Phenology of United States from July to October 2021

Figure.X Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure.X Time series rainfall profile

Figure.X Time series temperature profile

Figure.X Maximum VCI

Figure.X Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles

Regional Analysis

2.1 Cornbelt

This region is the most important maize and soybean producing area in the United States. During this monitoring period, crop growth conditions were above average due to favorable agro-climatic conditions. Rainfall (+10%), temperature (+1.2℃) and RADPAR (+4%) were higher than the 15YA, which favored the photosynthetic process of crops, resulting in 8% higher potential biomass than average. VCIx reached to 0.95, indicating the good crop growth condition. The CALF reached 100%,  2% above the 5YA and cropping intensity was also 2% above the average. All in all, production for this region recovered to the above-5YA level.

图.X Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

2.2 North Plain

This area is an important spring wheat and maize producing area. In general, the poor crop condition was indicated by the NDVI development profile. Rainfall in the current reporting period returned to normal and was 7% above the 15YA, and temperature (+1.6℃) and RADPAR (+2%) were higher than 15YA. The increased precipitation mitigated the effects of drought to some extent. However, the crop condition improved little due to strong negative impact of severe droughts that occurred in the northern plains in the previous reporting period. Agronomic indicators also showed unfavorable conditions, with a VCIx of only 0.59, the lowest among the AEZs, indicating poor crop growth in the region. Compared to the 5-year average, the CALF had significantly dropped by 24%. In short, CropWatch assessed below-average crop conditions in the region, and crop production is expected to be far below average.

图.X Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

2.3 Lower Mississippi

The region is an important production area for rice, soybeans and maize. During this monitoring period, good crop growing conditions continued from the previous reporting period to the current reporting period. Overall, weather conditions were favorable for crop growth, with rainfall 15% above 15YA and RADPAR 4% below 15YA. The average temperature was 24.1°C, 0.1°C below the 15YA, but still the highest among the AEZs. The potential biomass was 15% above 15YA. The favorable crop condition was also confirmed by average VCIx of 0.95. The intensity of arable land use also increased during the monitoring period, with cropping intensity 2% higher than average. In short, the CropWatch assessed that above crop production can be expected in this region.

图.X Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

2.4 Northwest

The Northwest region is an important spring wheat producing region. During the reporting period, the climate was wet and warm with rainfall (+17%) and temperature (+0.5℃) above the 15YA, and RADPAR (+0%) close to average. During the last reporting period, the region had suffered from a severe drought that caused significant damage to crops in the area. Even when precipitation returned to above-average levels, the poor condition of the crops did not change. The VCIx was only 0.63 compared to the last five-year average, indicating poor crop conditions. The proportion of arable land under cultivation and the intensity of arable land use in the area decreased significantly during this monitoring period, with CALF at only 61% (12% below 5YA), and cropping intensity 4% below 5YA. In short, poor crop production in this area was assessed by CropWatch.

图.X Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

2.5 South Plain

The region is an important cotton, rice, and sorghum producing area in the United States. The crop conditions, as indicated by NDVI, were favorable. Compared to the 15 years average, rainfall (+18%), temperature (+0.1℃), and RADPAR (+5%) were  above the 15YA, respectively, which provided generally favorable conditions for crop growth. The potential biomass was 11% above the 15-year average. The average value of VCIx reached 0.90, which indicates good crop conditions.  The CALF was 4% above the 5YA. In short, good crop conditions were assessed by CropWatch for the South Plain.

图.X Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 3.75 United States' agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July-October 2021

Table 3.76 United States' agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July-October 2021