This monitoring period from July to October covers the growing and harvesting stage of maize. Wheat was harvested in July and August. Winter wheat sowing started in September and October. Summer precipitation is minimal, as rain falls mostly during  winter. Most of the summer crops are irrigated. Among the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, RAIN was below average (-48%), while TEMP and RADPAR were above average (+0.2°C and +1%). The combination of these factors resulted in a decrease of estimated BIOMSS (-27%) compared to the fifteen-year average. The NDVI development graph shows that crop conditions were below the five-year average during the monitoring period. As shown in the NDVI cluster graph and profiles, only about 14.7% of the agricultural areas had above-average conditions during the whole monitoring period, these areas are located mainly in the northern part of Namangan Province, the southern part of Ferghana Province, and along the Amu Darya River. The agricultural areas with maximum VCI indices above 0.8 were in Andijon Province, Namangan Province, Ferghana Province, Khorezm Province, and the eastern part of Bukhoro Province. The national average VCIx was 0.73, the cropped arable land fraction decreased by 11%, and the cropping intensity was 118. It had increased by 2%.

Overall, the prospects for crop production in Uzbekistan are unfavorable.

Regional analysis

In the Aral Sea cotton zone, crop condition was below the five-year average according to the NDVI development graph. TEMP and RADPAR were above 15YA (+0.3°C and +2%), while RAIN was below average (-61%). BIOMSS decreased by 45% compared to the 15YA. The maximum VCI index was 0.69 and the cropped arable land fraction decreased by 25%. The cropping intensity was close to the average. Affected by these factors, the crop prospects for this zone are unfavorable.

In the Eastern hilly cereals zone, NDVI was below the five-year average from July to October. The RAIN was below average (-48%), while TEMP and RADPAR were slightly above the fifteen-year average (+0.2°C and +1%). The combination of these factors resulted in a decreased BIOMSS (-23%). The maximum VCI index was 0.73 and the cropped arable land fraction decreased by 6%. The cropping intensity was above average by 2%. Overall, crop productions in this zone are expected to be negative. 

The Central region with sparse crops also suffered from severe rainfall shortage (decreased by 71%), whereas temperature was slightly warmer (+0.3°C) and RADPAR was close to average (+1%). Consequently, BIOMSS decreased by 48% as compared to the 15YA. The maximum VCI was 0.81, cropping intensity was equal to the 5YA and the cropped arable land fraction increased by 3%. However, it is noteworthy that the unfavorable crop condition of this region had little impact on the crop productions of Uzbekistan since the crop fields are sparse in the region.

Figure 3.43. Uzbekistan crop condition, July - October 2021

Table 3.78 Uzbekistan's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 15YA, July - October 2021

Table 3.79 Uzbekistan's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 5YA, July - October 2021