In South Africa, wheat is the main crop being produced during this monitoring period. In the east, maize sowing started in October. Soybean planting also started in October.

Based on the NDVI development graph, the crop conditions were slightly above the 5-year average during this monitoring period and even exceeded the 5-year maximum in August and October. At the national level, the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that radiation was slightly above the 15-year average (RADPAR +2%). With a lower rainfall (RAIN -15%) and a slightly lower temperature (TEMP -0.7℃), the potential biomass decreased by 3% compared to the 15-year average. The maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was 0.91, and the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) increased significantly by 22% compared with the last 5 years. According to the VCIx, conditions in the Mediterranean zone, where wheat is an important crop, were better than in the eastern region (like Gauteng, Mpumalanga). As to the spatial distribution of NDVI profiles, crop conditions on about 58.2% of the cropland were below average during the whole monitoring period, 21.8% was on average during July to August and about 41.8% of the area was above average starting in September. The areas with negative departures were mainly in the center of the eastern region (like Gauteng, Mpumalanga province). Overall, crop conditions were slightly above average. 

Regional analysis

Rainfall in the Arid and desert zones was slightly below average (77mm, -9%) and the temperature was near average (12.7°C, -0.7°C), whereas radiation was slightly above average (+3%), and potential biomass decreased by -3% due to the insufficient rainfall. Cropped arable land fraction (CALF) increased significantly (+36%) and VCIx was 0.78. The cropping intensity was average (108%,+1%), indicating cropland utilization rate was normal. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI indicates that the crop conditions were generally above the 5-year average and only in late-July was slightly below average. Crop production is expected to be favorable.

In the Humid Cape Fold mountains, the temperature was near average (14.7 °C, -0.6 °C), and rainfall was below average (175mm, -15%). With lower rainfall (-15%), potential biomass was below the 15-year average (-5%). CALF was 83% and VCIx was 0.94. The cropping intensity was average (105%, +2%), indicating cropland utilization rate was normal.The crop condition development graph based on NDVI also indicates favorable conditions.

In the Mediterranean zone, the temperature was near average (11.8 °C, -0.8 °C), while rainfall witnessed a significant increase (316mm, +13%) and radiation was slightly above average (990 MJ/m², +4%). The estimated potential biomass was increased significantly by 10% due to the sufficient rainfall. CALF increased substantially (89%, +6%) and VCIx was 0.93. The cropping intensity was average (101%, +1%), indicating cropland utilization rate was normal. According to the crop condition development graph, the NDVI was above the 5-year maximum for most of the period. Crop conditions were favorable.

In the Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas, rainfall (69 mm, -23%) and temperature (13.7 °C, -0.7°C) were were below the 15-year average. Radiation was near average (1182 MJ/m², +1%). Potential biomass decreased by 6%. CALF was significantly above the 5YA (17%, +47%) and VCIx was 0.90. The cropping intensity was near average (101%, 0%) indicating cropland utilization rate was normal. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows the NDVI was below the 5-year average for most of the period. However, most of land was fallow during the winter months and the planting of summer crops started in October only.

Figure 3.45 South Africa's crop condition, July-October 2021

(a) Phenology of the main Crop

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Rainfall index 

(e) Temperature index

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                            (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Arid desert (left) and Humid sub-tropical (right)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI semiarid steppe (left)  and Mediterranean (right)

Table3.81 South Africa's agro-climatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July-October 2021

Table3.82 South Africa's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, July-October 2021