This period covers the maturity and harvesting of the irrigated dry-season crops and the onset of the rainfed season. The key irrigated crops are wheat, green maize, horticultural crops and vegetables. Irrigated wheat was harvested from late September into October. At the national level, rainfall (-35%) and solar radiation (RADPAR -1%) were below the 15YA. The average temperature was 21.6℃ (+0.2%) and potential biomass production was 231 gDM/m² (+9%). The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was 46% and maximum VCI was 0.81. The overall conditions for the irrigated crops during this period were favorable. The total cereal production, the bulk being maize, was forecasted at about 4 million. Wheat production also benefitted from the generally favorable conditions.

Regional Analysis

Based on regional analyses of the agro-ecological region, rainfall in all the agro-ecological zones was below the 15 year average with the Northern High Rainfall Zoneand Central-Eastern and Southern Plateau recording highest negative departure (-38% and -36% respectively). The temperature varied from Northern High Rainfall Zone (21.3℃, +0.1%) to Western Semi-arid Plain (22.3℃, +0.4%). The radiation in all agro-ecological zones was above 1350 MJ/m² (+4%) except for the Luangwa-Zambezi Rift Valley with a slight decrease (-2%). Negative BIOMSS departures were observed in the Luangwa-Zambezi Rift Valley (-2%). A similar pattern was observed for the cropped arable land fraction (CALF), with the highest CALF in Northern High Rainfall Zone (81%, +3%), and with lower values but hihger positive departures in Luangwa-Zambezi Rift Valley (32%, +15%), Central-Eastern and Southern Plateau (36%, +22%) and the Western Semi-Arid Plateau (54%, +6%). The vegetation health index (VCIx) was above 80% in all the agro-ecological region except for Luangwa-Zambezi Valley (VCIx 75%).CropWatch expects an above-average production for 2021/2022 season which is estimated to be sufficient to meet the national consumption requirements. 

Figure A: Phenology Map of Zambia

Figure B: Time series rainfall profile

Figure C: Time series temperature profile

Figure D: Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure E: Maximum VCI

Figure F: Maximum Vegetation Health Index

Table 1: Zambia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July-October 2021

Figure.X Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 2: Zambia’s agronomic indicators by sub national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA/5YA, July-October 2021