After a brief overview of the agro-climatic and agronomic conditions in China over the reporting period (section 4.1), Chapter 4 presents an updated estimate of major cereals and soybean production at provincial and national levels as well as summer crops production and total annual outputs (4.2) and describes the situation by region, focusing on the seven most productive agro-ecological regions of China: Northeast China, Inner Mongolia, Huanghuaihai, Loess region, LowerYangtze, Southwest China, and Southern China (4.3). Section 4.4 describes trade prospects of major cereals and soybean. Additional information on the agro-climatic indicators for agriculturally important Chinese provinces is listed in table A.11 in Annex A.

4.1 Overview

From the perspectives of agroclimatic indicators, the overall conditions were generally favorable in China from July to October 2021, with rainfall, temperature and radiation all above average by 13%, 0.2°C and 2%, respectively. As a result, the potential biomass was 11% higher than the 15YA. The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was rather high at 0.95. The national Cropping Intensity (CI) was 5% above 5YA. Moreover, the mean of CALF for the whole country was at an average level compared to the 5YA. 

Over the entire growing period, all of the main agricultural regions of China except Southern China (-3%) recorded above-average rainfall, with the largest positive departure occurring in Huanghuaihai (+75%). According to the spatial distribution of rainfall profiles, both above-average and below-average rainfall was observed during the monitoring period. In some provinces of the lower Yangtze River Basin (most parts of Zhejiang, southern Jiangsu, southern Anhui, northeastern Jiangxi, marked in dark green) rainfall per dekad exceeded the 15YA by 150 mm in mid-August. Regions along the Yellow River including some parts in Shandong, Hubei, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan, Beijing and Tianjin also experienced excessive rainfall. It exceeded the average of the mid-July dekad by 90 mm. Heavy rainfall in July in Henan caused severe flooding and led to the crop failure of maize in Hebi and other regions, and several rounds of heavy rainfall weather, continued flooding and low sunshine led to a 3.4% year-on-year decline in maize production in Henan province. Shanxi was also affected by excessive rainfall (such as heavy rain in early October), and the maize production fell 4.1%. Moreover, the excessive soil moisture due to excessive rainfall resulted in the delayed sowing of winter wheat for parts of the provinces along the Yellow river in Henan and Shandong. 

Four of the main agricultural region in China recorded above-average temperatures ranging from +0.1℃ (Loess region) to +0.5℃ (Lower Yangtze region), while the other regions recorded below-average temperatures with negative departures ranging from -0.5°C (Inner Mongolia) to -0.1°C (Northeast China). The map of the spatial distribution of temperature profiles indicates that temperatures fluctuated during the monitoring period as follows: 40.8% of cultivated regions (marked in blue) in most parts of Southern China, Lower Yangtze region and Southwest China had positive temperature anomalies by more than 2.5°C in late September and early October, while 37.6% of the cultivated regions (marked in dark green) in most parts of Inner Mongolia, Loess region and Huanghuaihai had positive temperature anomalies by more than 2.0°C in late September. The blue and dark green marked regions also experienced negative temperature anomalies by more than 2.0°C in mid-October. 

As for RADPAR, four of the seven regions in China (Huanghuaihai, Loess region, Inner Mongolia and Northeast China) received less radiation as compared to the 15YA, while the other regions received above-average radiation. In respect to BIOMSS,  most parts of China had positive departures, including all of the AEZs with a range from +4% (Southern China) to +28% (Huanghuaihai). As can be seen in the spatial distribution of potential biomass departure from the 15YA, most of China had positive departures, but there were areas with negative departures and for very few of them, mainly concentrated in some parts in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia where crops suffered from drought, BIOMSS was even 20% below average.

The VCIx values were mostly quite high in all of the main producing regions of China, with values between 0.89 (Loess region) and 0.98 (North east China) except for the northern Shaanxi, central and sourthern Ningxia and part of Gansu. This coincided with the below-average BIOMSS pattern because those reigons are dominated by rainfed crops. Accordingly, not all of the cropland was cultivated, or rather crops were lost due to excessive rainfall, as shown on the CALF map. Nationally, CALF was average in all AEZs of China as compared to the 5YA. Among them, Inner Mongolia recorded slightly below-average CALF (-1%) while all the remaining regions showed an average CALF. When it comes to the cropping intensity (CI), values of 200% are mainly observed in the North China Plain with the wheat-and-maize rotation system while values of 300% are sparsely distributed in Southwestern and Southern China. The largest CI departure occurred in Southwest China (+14%), while all the other AEZs in China had the CI departure ranging from -1% to +8%. 

Table 4.1 CropWatch agro-climatic and agronomic indicators for China, July to Oct 2021, departure from 5YA and 15YA

Figure 4.1 China crop calendar

Figure 4.2 China spatial distribution of rainfall profiles, July to Oct 2021

Figure 4.3 China spatial distribution of temperature profiles, July to Oct 2021

Figure 4.4 China cropped and uncropped arable land, by pixel, July to Oct 2021

Figure 4.5 China maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx), by pixel, July to Oct 2021

Figure 4.6 China biomass departure map from 15YA, by pixel, July to Oct 2021

Figure 4.7 China minimum Vegetation Health Index (VHIn), by pixel, July to Oct 2021

Figure 4.8. China Cropping Intensity (CI), by pixel, July to Oct 2021