By October, the late rice had matured in the center of Lower Yangtze region including Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and Fujian provinces. The harvest of semi-late rice and maize had been completed in Jiangsu, Anhui and Zhejiang provinces by then.

The comparison of the current crop NDVI development curve with the 5YA indicates that the crop conditions were slightly below average. According to CropWatch agro-climatic indicators, the accumulated precipitation, photosynthetically active radiation and temperature were 4%, 5% and 0.5℃ higher than the 15-year averages, respectively. The above-average agro-climatic conditions resulted in an estimate of the potential biomass that was 6% higher than the 5-year average. The biomass departure also shows that the potential biomass in most areas of the region was above the average level, up to a maximum of 20%.

As shown in spatial NDVI patterns, 49.1% of the area, mostly distributed in the north of this region including Jiangsu, Anhui and Hubei provinces, presented better crop conditions compared to the five-year average. The remaining areas had slightly below average crop conditions. This was basically consistent with the spatial distribution of potential biomass departure, indicating that there were better agro-climatic conditions in the north of the region during this monitoring period. The average VCIx of this region was 0.96, and most area had VCIx values ranging from 0.8 to 1.

Overall, the crop conditions in the lower Yangtze region were normal.

Figure 4.x Crop condition China Lower Yangtze region, July-October 2021

(a)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI       (b) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA      (c) NDVI profiles

(d) Time series rainfall profile                                        (e) Time series temperature profile

(f) Maximum VCI                                                                                                                           (g) Biomass departure