Import and export of major crops in the first three quarters of 2021

Rice

In the first three quarters, China imported 3.58 million tonnes of rice, more than double the amount of the same period last year, with the main source countries being India, Vietnam, Pakistan, Myanmar and Thailand, accounting for 23.8%, 22.9%, 18.8%, 16.8% and 10.2% of total import, respectively. The total imported rice is valued at US$ 1.63 billion. The export of rice was 1.85 million tonnes, a decrease of 1.2% over the same period last year. It was mainly exported to Sierra Leone ( accounting for 9.1% of the total export), South Korea (8.8%), Egypt (8.5%), Niger (6.7%) and Papua New Guinea (6.6%), with a total export value of US $760 million.

Wheat

China imported 7.60 million tonnes of wheat, an increase of 25.5% over the same period last year. The main import sources were Canada, the United States and Australia, accounting for 32.2%, 30.4% and 24.7% of total import, respectively. The total import wheat was valued at US $2.346 billion. The export of wheat was 54.1 thousand tonnes, a significant decrease by 66.4% over the same period last year.

Maize

China imported 24.93 million tonnes of maize, nearly four times of the same period last year. The main import sources were the United States (70.7%) and Ukraine (29%), with an import value of US $6.929 billion. The export of maize was 4.4 thousand tonnes, with an export value of US $2.37 million.

Soybean

China imported 73.99 million tonnes of soybeans, an increase of 0.7% over the same period last year. The main source was Brazil (66.2% of the total imports), followed by the United States (29.5%) and Argentina (2.0%), with an import value of US $25.435 billion. Soybean exports were at 44.8 thousand tonnes, a decrease of 21.3% over the last year.

Trade prospects for major cereals and oil crop in China for 2021

On the basis of remote sensing-based production prediction in major agricultural producing countries in 2021 and the Major Agricultural Shocks and Policy Simulation Model, it is predicted that the import of major crops will increase and the export will decrease in 2021. The details are as follows:

The global rice market maintains a loose supply and demand pattern, and the price difference at home and abroad continues. It is expected that China's rice import will increase by 121% and export will decrease by 1.1% in 2021.

Affected by natural disasters such as drought, the global wheat output has declined and the price is bullish. However, wheat production in China's wheat import source countries is relatively stable. It is expected that China's wheat import will increase by 27.5% and export will decrease by 32.4% in 2021.

Due to the structural change of domestic maize supply and demand and the adjustment of market price, it is expected that China's maize import will increase significantly by 258% from 2020, and export will decrease by 1.5% in 2021.

Due to sufficient global soybean supply and stable domestic soybean consumption demand, it is expected that China's soybean import will be basically the same as last year (+1%) and export will decrease by 15.2% in 2021.

Figure 4.16  Rate of change of imports and exports for rice, wheat, maize, and soybean in China in 2021 compared to those for 2020(%)