CropWatch production estimates are based on a combination of remote-sensing models in conjunction with global agroclimatic and agronomic indicators. The major grain crops (maize, rice, wheat) and soybean production of 43 major producers and exporters are estimated for 2021. The results are as follows:

In 2021, total global production of major cereal and oil crops is estimated to be at 2,882 million tons, a decrease by 0.4%, equivalent to 10.3 million tons. Maize production is estimated at 1,077 million tons, an increase of 0.6% or 6.9 million tons; global rice production is at 764 million tons，an increase of 0.5% or 3.5 million tons; global wheat production is 720 million tons, a decrease of or 17.7 million tons from 2020, due to the consistent drought impact in North America and Western Asia. The global soybean production is estimated to be at 320.78 million tons, a decrease by 0.9%.

Maize: In the United States, the world's largest maize producer, the major producing areas experienced abundant rainfall since late July, effectively alleviating early drought conditions in the northern Corn Belt. Maize production reached 381 million tons, an increase of 6.83 million tons (up by 1.8%). Maize production in the U.S. Corn Belt in Illinois, Iowa, Idaho and Indiana, as well as Nebraska and Kansas increased. The agro-meteorological conditions were favorable during the maize growing period in Ukraine. Regular rainfall benefitted crop growth, prompting the recovery of maize yields from the reduced production in 2020. Coupled with the increase in maize planted area, Ukraine's maize production reached 35.95 million tons, an increase of 8 million tons or up by 28.7%. Maize production in France, Mozambique and Zambia also increased  by more than 4%. Kenya (-20.9%), Kyrgyzstan (-12.8%), Angola (-11.4%), Hungary (-10.3%), Brazil (-4.8%) and Turkey (-2.6%) suffered from persistent drought during the maize reproductive period and maize production decreased. Ethiopia was affected by desert locusts, conflicts and other adverse factors. Its maize production shrank by 2.6%. The output of the remaining major maize producing and exporting countries is comparable to 2020. They have a small impact on the change in total global maize production.

Rice: Asian rice production dominates the world with most rice grown in areas with abundant rainfall or well-developed irrigation facilities. Inter-annual fluctuations in rice production are generally smaller than those of the other three major crops. China, India and Indonesia are the world's three largest rice producers, and the overall rice production situation is favorable. Production increased by 1.78 million tons, 1.66 million tons and 1.44 million tons respectively. Agro-climatic conditions in Thailand and Vietnam are in general at the average level, and rice production was slightly reduced. Affected by severe drought, Iran's rice production decreased significantly by 16.5%. Myanmar was also affected by drought and rice production was reduced by 2.8%. Rice production in Brazil, Nigeria, Mozambique increased, while rice production in Argentina, the United States, Egypt, Angola and some other countries decreased slightly. Overall, the global rice production and supply situation is stable.

Wheat:  In most spring wheat production countries wheat yields decreased due to below average rainfall, resulting in significantly reduced wheat production in Afghanistan (-25.0%), Iran (-22.9%), Uzbekistan (-17.6%), Kyrgyzstan (-15.6%), Canada (-15.2%) and Kazakhstan (-12.7%). Russia's wheat  also experienced decreased rainfall and wheat production was reduced by 3.1%. In the Southern Hemisphere, the drought in the central region of Brazil continues. Severe drought conditions resulted in a decline in wheat yields nationwide, but the impact of the drought on wheat production is limited in central Brazil as wheat is all irrigated in this region. On the other hand, a significant increase in planted area contributed to a 17.7% increase in wheat production. Despite the widespread drought in South Africa, the drought mainly occurred in the main producing areas of summer crops, while the wheat production areas located in the Mediterranean climate zone in the southwest of South Africa experienced overall normal conditions. Both wheat yield and planted area have increased, prompting the wheat production of South Africa to increase by 6.2%. Morocco, Argentina and Zambia wheat yield increased significantly from the severe drought in 2020, and wheat production increased by 43.2%, 12.3% and 16.4%, respectively. Overall, the global wheat supply situation is basically normal.

Soybean: The widespread hot and dry weather in South America led to a decline in soybean production in Brazil and Argentina to 96.3 million tons and 51.61 million tons, a decrease of 4.74 million tons and 0.98 million tons respectively. The U.S. soybean planted area increased by 0.4%, prompting its soybean production to increase by 0.2% to 104.7 million tons. Canada's soybean production area received regular rainfall and its soybean production increased by 2.3%. India's soybean planted area and yield increased simultaneously, prompting India's total soybean production to increase by about 11.5% or 1.34 million tons from the previous year.  Russia was affected by drought conditions and soybean production decreased by 4.7%. Overall, total global soybean production decreased slightly by 0.9%, which is expected to have a limited impact on the international soybean supply situation and global soybean market remains stable.

Table 2021 production estimates in thousands tonnes for the 43 targeting countries. Δ% stands for the change in % compared with the corresponding season in 2020.