Based on nationwide NDVI development graphs over this monitoringperiod, significantly above average crop condition prevails in Canada. Theperiod covers the harvesting season of winter crops and early growing season of2016 summer crops. Three major crop production provinces were dominated by goodweather and abundant precipitation: Alberta (RAIN, +16%), Manitoba (RAIN,+23%), and Saskatchewan (RAIN, +16%). On the contrary, insufficientprecipitation occurred in eastern provinces, such as Ontario (RAIN, -28%) andQuebec (RAIN, -22%). According to the NDVI profile clusters, favorable summercrop condition prevails in scattered locations in Quebec, southern Ontario, andAlberta, as well as in Southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan, with VCIx greaterthan one (indicating exceptionally good crop condition). Adequate soil moisture(compared to the five-year average), resulted in a cropped arable land fraction(CALF) increasing 1 percentage point at the expense of fallow land. Cropproduction is forecast to be above last year’s if good weather continues. (Seetable B.4 in Annex B for Canada’s production estimates.)

Figure3.9. Canada crop condition, April-July 2016

a)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                       (b) Maximum VCI

(c)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                        (d) NDVI profile