In the main agricultural regions in Ethiopia two rainy seasons exist—the Meher and the Belg, resulting in two crop seasons. Meher is the main crop season. It encompasses crops harvested between Meskerem (September) and Yeaktit (February). Crops harvested between Megabit (March) and Nehase (August) are considered part of the Belg season crop. The most important contribution of the Belg season to total production is maize. In western maize zones, rainfall was 766 mm (RAIN, +8% over average) and the biomass production potential increased 4%, in spite of rather cool temperature (-0.8°C). The southwestern coffee zones recorded decreased RAIN(-21%), BIOMSS (-11%), and TEMP (-0.6°C). Overall, the reporting period, which largely coincides with the planting of Meher and harvest of Belg crops,suffered below average rainfall (RAIN, -5%) and temperature (TEMP, -0.3°C)countrywide. The national average of the VCIx (0.94) was above average, and the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) increased by 5 percentage points compared to its five-year average. As shown in the NDVI crop condition development graph, NDVI was average or above average in this monitoring period. The spatial NDVI patterns show that in some parts of southern Ethiopia, including in Arba Minch and Hosaena and covering 16.2% of the total area, the NDVI is significantly below the five-year average before June and above average thereafter. Altogether, and with the possible exception of the northeastern SNPP, the outlook for Meher crops is favorable.

Figure3.12. Ethiopia crop condition, April-July2016

(a)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                        (b)Maximum VCI

(c)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                  (d)NDVI profiles