Although unfavorable conditions negatively affected the outcome of the 2015-16 winter crops season (referred to below as “2016”), average conditions from early May up to the time of harvest in Hebei, Shanxi, and Gansu resulted in an increase of yield compared to previous forecasts. As a result, the total estimated 2016 production of all winter crops for China has been revised to 122 million tons, just 2.7% below last year’s production.

Table 4.2. China 2015-16 winter crops production (in ‘000 tons) and variation (%) from 2014-15, by province

The first 2016 CropWatch forecasts for maize, rice, wheat, and soybean production in China are listed in table 4.3. Detailed production estimates for different types of rice (different growing seasons) are shown in table 4.4. As illustrated in these tables, the production of maize and soybean is 1% above 2015, while overall for rice and wheat, the drop is 1% below 2015 levels.

Reasons for the changes in production include the release, by China’s government, of a new policy that encourages farmers to shift from maize to other, more suitable crops in regions where maize cultivation is not well suited because of for example soil fertility or climatic conditions. The policy, however, has not resulted in much change in terms of planted area, with the most significant decreases in maize planted area occurring in Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang provinces, with areas shrinking by respectively 222 and 103 thousand hectares, or 7% and 2% compared to 2015. The expected 1% increase in soybean production stems from a recovery in the soybean planted area, contributing to the first increase in soybean production in China over the last 12 years. Other significant changes in production in China include those for maize in Hebei (+7%, both yield and area increased), Inner Mongolia (-8%, due to reduced planted area), Liaoning (+8%, a recovery from last year’s severe drought), and Shandong (+6%, both yield and area increased), while also rice production in Jilin, Liaoning, and Yunnan present significant change (+12%, -10%, and 6%, respectively). The decrease in the estimated production of wheat and rice by 1% each mainly stems from unfavorable conditions. In terms of rice production for different rice types, production of early rice and late rice is 4% and 3% below that of 2015 due to the continuous trend of conversion of double rice cropping to single rice cropping. Although the planted area for single rice increased, conditions were unfavorable for the crop, resulted in a similar output as 2015.

Table 4.3, China 2016 production of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean, and percentage change from 2015, by province

                                mnaize                    rice                                wheat                                          soyabean

                          2016 change(%)             2016 change(%)                   2016 change(%)                   2016 change(%)

CropWatch puts the total 2016 output of summer crops (including maize, single rice, late rice, spring wheat, soybean, minor cereals, and tubers) at 408.3 million tons, only a slight increase (+0.4%) from 2015 but still representing a 1445 thousand tons in production increase. The total annual crop production is at 564.4 million tons, a 0.6% drop from 2015.

As late rice is still at an early growing stage, and maize and single rice are at grain filling stage, the production for each crop type as well as total summer crops production and annual outputs will be revised in the November 2016 bulletin using updated remote sensing data.

Table 4.4. China 2016 early rice,single rice, and late rice production and percentage difference from 2015, byprovince

                                      early rice                                            single rice                                           late rice

                               2015 change(%)                                      2015 change(%)                                  2015 change(%)