The following analysis of domestic prices for maize, hybridwheat, rice, and soybean in China is based on the following three sources: (i)nationwide monthly grain price data between January 2004 and June 2016 providedby the price information center of China’s National Development and ReformCommission (NDRC); (ii) China’s grain production, inventory, and consumptionpredicted by USDA’s monthly world agricultural supply and demand estimates(WASDE) reports;[1]and (iii) price trend forecasts and early warning obtained by Fang Jingxin’sprice-spiral model.

The statements below describe China’s domestic prices—paidto the farmer—as of June 2016; all listed prices refer to 50 kg. Current pricesand outlook for the four crops are as follows:

·      Maizeprice. The average price of maize in June was unsatisfactory at 87.17 Yuan.The consumption rate (use/production) has broken away from the “non-boom”interval to an equilibrium range.

·      Hybridwheat price. The price of hybrid wheat at 113.41 Yuan represented adecrease as a result of reduced consumption. At its lowest, the price of hybridwheat is expected to drop to 104.66 Yuan.

·      Riceprice. The average purchase price of rice was 136.09 Yuan. A large priceincrease is expected, with prices likely reaching 143.73 Yuan; price monitoringcontinues.

·      Soybean. Onaverage, soybean was bought at 190.38 Yuan, with price and consumption rates inequilibrium; the crop is estimated to be in a boom state. Since the consumptionrate has been approaching the equilibrium interval, the price is close to thedrop trend line, which means the price can go up or down.

Figure 4.14. Fluctuations insoybean price, July 2011 to June 2016

Note: The graph illustrates theprice of soybean for the last 12.5 years since January 1 2004 (upper graph) andfor the last five years fro