5.1 Production outlook

Tables 5.1 and 5.2 present the current CropWatch estimate of2016 crop production, based on a combination of remote-sensing and trend-basedprojections. The information will be updated in the next quarterly bulletin inNovember, including more actual information as it becomes available. Except forwheat, of which the largest share is produced in the northern hemisphere as awinter crop, approximately 80 percent of the total 2016 production has beenharvested recently or is still growing.

Table 5.1. Summary of 2016production estimates by major aggregates (thousand tons) and variation (%,compared with 2015) of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean

Note:Major producers include China and the 30 countries listed in Chapters 3 (andtable 5.2) for which CropWatch carries out a detailed qualitative andquantitative assessment of crop condition and production. Together, theyrepresent more than 80% of the production and about 80% of exports of maize,rice, wheat and soybean. Refer to the note in table 5.2 for additionalmethodological detail. Minor producers include the 151 countries (fromAfghanistan and Angola to Zambia and Zimbabwe). Country-wide productions forthose minor producers are computed for each country based on trends derivedfrom FAOSTAT data but aggregated in the table. “All countries" combinesmajor and minor producers. The top-5 exporters are the countries listed byhttp://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture based on USDA data. The totals are basedon table 5.2, except for soybean and Uruguay (the fifth largest producer),which is based on trends derived from FAOSTAT.

As illustrated in table 5.1, CropWatch currently estimatesthe production of 2016 to depart less than 1.5% from the production of 2015 formaize (+1.3%), wheat (-0.1%), and soybean (+0.1%), while for rice a marked dropof -3.8% is expected mainly as a result of adverse conditions in India. Whenconsidering only the major producers, the situation is less favorable, as thebulk of the minor producers significantly outperforms the major ones. Thesituation is slightly more favorable when the top five exporters areconsidered: maize, wheat, and soybean supply is up by close to or more than 1%(0.8%, 2.0%, and 1.0%, respectively). For rice the drop is 8%, which may resultin some tension.

Large differences are sometimes observed between countries(for one crop) or between crops (within one country). In general,between-country variability is largest for maize (-32 to +19%) and aboutcomparable for the three remaining crops (about -32% to +9%). For between-cropvariability at the national level, the size of the country, the number ofseasons, and the diversity of eco-climatic conditions play a major part. Chinais a perfect illustration with maize and soybean up 1% and rice and wheat down1%. Other countries with low between-crop variability include Australia,Indonesia, Pakistan, Russia, and the United States. High values occur in SouthAfrica (-32% for maize and +9% for soybean, a relatively minor crop in thecountry), Turkey (-16% for wheat, a winter crop, and +8% for soybean, a summercrop), Canada (-5% for maize and +11% for wheat), and Myanmar where maizeproduction increased 3% but rice dropped 17%, following a common behavior ofrice production in Southern Asia. The pattern is the result of the globalagroclimatic patterns noted in Chapter 1 and section 3.1.

Table 5.2. 2016 national productionestimates (thousand tons) and variation (%, compared with 2015) of maize, rice,wheat, and soybean of the maize producers

Notes: See the note for table 5.1 for a definitionof major (those listed in this table) and minor producers. Boldfaced numbers given for a country above are CropWatch estimatesbased on national statistics and remote sensing data. Other numbers are trends-basedand computed from FAOSTAT data. The CropWatch estimates are based in part oncurrent information and enjoy a larger degree of confidence than thetrend-based projections. The last three lines are similar to those in table5.1.

Maize

As mentioned, CropWatch foresees large differences among theperformances of national maize productions. The very large drop (-32%) in SouthAfrica can clearly be assigned to the prevailing drought, which was alreadymentioned in previous CropWatch bulletins. Similarly, the poor performance inIndia (-13%) and Brazil (-12%) can be assigned to unfavorable agroclimaticconditions, specifically floods and drought. Positive departures worthmentioning include those in Bangladesh (+6%), where the production has beengrowing fast over several years now, Kazakhstan (+5%), and Uzbekistan (+7%),Ukraine and neighboring Poland (9% and 7%, respectively), as well as Iran (+8%)and Ethiopia (+19%). If the increase can be confirmed for the latter country bylater estimates, it will provide welcome relief after a previous season badlyaffected by drought.

Rice

Major producers from west to Southeast Asia suffered a dropin rice production largely associated with a combination of drought and excessprecipitation, either locally or through the discharge of rivers (e.g., theMekong) that respond to rainfall in distant areas. In addition to India (-13%),which was already mentioned above, the following countries show markedestimated production drops: Vietnam -8%, Thailand -7%, Cambodia -6%, Bangladesh-5%, Pakistan and the Philippines, -2% and China, -1%. Myanmar and Indonesiastand out with +3% and no change with 2015, respectively. Increases are notedfor the United States (+4%) and Iran (+9%).

Wheat

The largest decrease is estimated in Turkey (-16%), India(-6%), as well as in Argentina and Brazil (-4% each). Large positive valuesamong the major producers are those of Canada (+11%), Romania (+7%), andAustralia (+5%). Similar to the situation with rice and maize noted above, Iranand Ethiopia are also expected to have good harvests of wheat (+15% and +12%,respectively).

Soybean

Due to changes in policy, China is forecast to increasesoybean production by 1%, the first positive departure in more than a decade.Russia and Ukraine are both consolidating their role as significant soybeanproducers with 3% and 2% production growth. Among the leading producers,Argentina is put at -1%, due to large excess precipitation, while Brazil andthe United States are both increasing their output over 2015, by 2% and 1%,respectively. Significant drops that may affect international markets includeCanada (-8%) and India (-11%). When considering population growth, the Indiansoybean production deficit is about 1.5 million tons. Added to the productiondrops of maize (2.4 million tons), rice (10.6 million tons), and wheat (5.3million tons), the shortfall is significant.