EI Niño has continued decaying during the second quarter of 2016. The eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have cooled rapidly from January, 2016 to July,2016 based on the Optimum Interpolation SeaSurface Temperature (OISST) and it is predicted that the temperature will continually lie in the cool condition but with average trend until the first quarter of 2017 according to the predicted temperature datasets of Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 (BCC_CSM1.1)  ensemble forecast results (See Figure 5.1).

厄尔尼诺在2016年第二季度仍然呈现持续减弱态势。最优插值海表温度观测数据集（OISST）显示，热带太平洋东部地区海面温度从2016年1月至7月份下降显著。北京气候中心气候系统模式版本1.1集合预报数据集（BCC_CSM1.1）（见图5.1）预测，热带太平洋东部地区海面温度将会持续走低，保持平均趋势，直至2017年度第一季度。

Figure 5.2 illustrates the behavior of the standard Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) from July 2015 to July 2016. During the current season, SOI has increased rapidly from -22.0 in April to +2.8 in May and keept a positive value in June and July, indicating neutral conditions of EI Niño and the possibility of a weak La Niña in 2017. NOAA  confirms the neutral condition and that La Niña is slightly favored to develop with the cool tropical Pacific waters (Figure5.3).

图5.2阐述了2015年7月至2016年7月澳大利亚气象局发布的南方涛动指数的变化情况。在这一时段内，南方涛动指数从4月份的-22.0迅速增大至5月份的+2.8，并且在6月份和7月份保持正值，表明厄尔尼诺目前处于中性水平，弱拉尼娜现象可能在2017年发生。美国国家海洋和大气局也证实了厄尔尼诺的中性态势，随着热带太平洋海面温度持续走低，可能形成拉尼娜现象（图5.3）。

Both BOM and NOAA issued a La Niña watch: conditions are weak for La Niña to emerge in late 2016 and early 2017. In the next few months, CropWatch will keep a close eye on the development of La Niña and the regions that show sensitivity to this event.

澳大利亚气象局和美国国家海洋和大气局均给出了关注拉尼娜的通知，认为拉尼娜在2016年晚些时候至2017年早期仍然较弱。接下来，CropWatch将会对拉尼娜的发展和受影响地区进行持续关注。

Figure 5.1 Tropical Pacific SSTA (Forecastedand Monitored datasets), from:http://cmdp.ncc-cma.net/download/ENSO/Variables_evolution/ENSO_SSTA_Patterns_O7P7_20160501.png

 图5.1, 热带太平洋海水表面温度异常（预测监测数据集）

Figure 5.2. Monthly BOMSOI time series from July 2015 to July 2016, from http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soi2.shtml.

 图5.2  2015年7月-2016年7月月度BOM SOI时间序列指数

Figure 5.3 Sea surface temperature difference map in July, 2016, compare to 1981-2010

references

图5.3  海洋表面温度差值图，2016年7月与1981-2010平均参考值之间

https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/geopolar-ssta-monthly-nnvl--1000X555--2016-07-00.png

https://www.climate.gov/enso