Executive summary 

The current CropWatch bulletin describes world-wide crop condition and food production as appraised by data up to the end of January 2022. It is prepared by an international team coordinated by the Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. 

The assessment is based mainly on remotely sensed data. It covers prevailing weather conditions, including extreme factors, at different spatial scales, starting with global patterns in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 focuses on agro-climatic and agronomic conditions in major production zones in all continents. Chapter 3 covers the major agricultural countries that, together, make up at least 80% of production and exports (the “core countries”) while chapter 4 zooms into China. Special attention is paid to the production outlook of major cereal and oil crops (maize, rice, wheat and soybean) countries in the Southern Hemisphere and some tropical and sub-tropical countries. Subsequent sections of Chapter 5 describe the global disasters that occurred from October 2021 to January 2022. 

This bulletin covers the beginning of the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere, as well as the sowing period and early vegetative growth of (winter) wheat in the Northern Hemisphere. 

Agro-climatic conditions 

Global temperatures continued their upward trend in 2021. It was slightly slowed by La Niña, which is expected to last until April 2022. Nevertheless, 2021 was the sixth warmest year on record. Temperatures were 0.84ºC above the average of the 20^th century. In Brazil, deforestation, fueled by high prices for soybean, maize and beef intensified even more in 2021. It had hit the highest point in the last 15 years.  A new study found that a warmer, dryer environment already has pushed 28% of Amazonian agricultural space out of its optimum climate conditions. The research predicted that 51% of the region’s agricultural land would move out of its ideal climate by 2030.

As expected, La Niña had a negative effect on precipitation in the south of Brazil and Paraguay and eastern Africa. However, other regions were also plagued by drought as well, such as the Maghreb and Morocco in particular. That country is experiencing the most severe drought conditions of the last 30 years. Heavy rainfall in January brought some relief to Central Asia and especially Afghanistan, which had suffered from a prolonged drought. Most of Africa south of the Sahara received below average rainfall. The monsoon rains north of the equator stopped earlier than normal and in the south, they started with a delay. This has caused drought conditions in northern Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Zambia, Malawi, Tanzania and Madagascar. The southern Plains, an important winter wheat production region of the USA encompassing Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas has experienced moderate to extreme drought conditions starting last fall. Rainfall was below average for most of Europe in October and early November, when precipitation returned to average levels for Central and Eastern Europe. Rainfall was near average for the important rice production countries in Southeast Asia. It was more abundant than usual in regions along the Yellow River in China. It caused localized flooding, which in turn delayed sowing of winter wheat. Above average rainfall, which is attributed to La Niña, provided favorable conditions for wheat production in Australia.

Key findings of this report

Maize: Favorable weather conditions helped ensure good harvest conditions in the USA and Europe. The drought in the south of Brazil is impacting its maize production, causing a drop by 5%. Conditions have been favorable in Argentina, CropWatch estimates an increase in production by 9% in Argentina. Africa south of the equator: Sowing was impacted by a delay in the onset of the monsoon season. Below average rainfall is causing drought conditions and yield losses. Conditions are favorable for winter maize production in south and south-east Asia.

Rice: Conditions during the monsoon season were favorable in South and Southeast Asia, thus harvest conditions were favorable. The combined output from the 12 countries monitored by CropWatch, accounting for 36% global rice production, is expected to increase by 1.5%.

Wheat: Conditions for wheat production in the Southern Hemisphere were generally favorable, apart from Brazil, which suffered from drought conditions. Argentina, South Africa and Australia benefitted from above average rainfall which resulted in record yield levels. Winter wheat was off to a slow start in Europe and Turkey, but conditions returned to average starting in mid-November. Winter wheat in the southern Plains of the USA is impacted by drought conditions. Sowing was delayed in regions along the Yellow River in China due to abnormally high rainfall in the autumn. Overall, global wheat production is projected to drop by 2% from 2021.

Soybean: Conditions are mixed in Brazil: Favorable in Mato Grosso, while the south of Brazil and Paraguay are impacted by drought conditions. Conditions in Argentina are favorable. CropWatch estimates an increase in production by 1% in Brazil and 4% in Argentina over the last year.