Chapter 3. Core countries

3.1 Overview

Chapter 1 has focused on large climate anomalies that sometimes reach the size of continents and beyond. The present section offers a closer look at individual countries, including the 42 countries that together produce and commercialize 80 percent of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean. As evidenced by the data in this section, even countries of minor agricultural or geopolitical relevance are exposed to extreme conditions and deserve mentioning, particularly when they logically fit into larger patterns.

Introduction

The global agro-climatic patterns that emerge at the MRU level (chapter 1) are reflected with greater spatial detail at the national and sub-national administrative levels described in this chapter. The “core countries”, including major producing and exporting countries are all the object of a specific and detailed narrative in the later sections of this chapter, while China is covered in Chapter 4. Sub-national units and national agro- ecological zones receive due attention in this chapter as well. 

In many cases, the situations listed below are also mentioned in the section on disasters (chapter 5.2) although extreme events tend to be limited spatially, so that the statistical abnormality is not necessarily reflected in the climate statistics that include larger areas. No attempts are normally made, in this chapter, to identify global patterns that were already covered in Chapter 1. The focus is on 166 individual countries and sometimes their subdivisions for the largest ones. Some of them are relatively minor agricultural producers at the global scale, but their national production is nevertheless crucial for their population, and conditions may be more extreme than among the large producers.

Overview of weather conditions in major agricultural exporting countries

The current section provides a short overview of prevailing conditions among the major exporters of maize, rice, wheat and soybeans, conventionally taken as the countries that export at least one million tons of the covered commodities. There are only 20 countries that rank among the top ten exporters of maize, rice, wheat and soybeans respectively. The United States and Argentina rank among the top ten of all four crops, whereas Brazil, Ukraine and Russia rank among the top ten of three crops.

Maize: Harvest in the Northern Hemisphere was completed by last November. Production conditions were generally favorable, especially in the USA and Ukraine, as described in the November 2021 CropWatch bulletin. In the Southern Hemisphere, maize planting started at the beginning of the rainy season in November and December. In Brazil, most maize is sown as a second crop towards the end of the rainy season, after soybean harvest in February. Full season maize was sown in October in Brazil. The south of Brazil was affected by a precipitation deficit. In Argentina, the second largest maize exporter, closely followed by Brazil in 3rd position, growth conditions for maize have been favorable so far. Mexico's irrigated maize production is impacted by a reduction in area, since water levels in the reservoirs are still below average. In South Africa and the north of Angola, conditions for maize production have been quite favorable, However, the other African countries south of the equator are being impacted by drought conditions. Especially Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe, are hit hard. Winter maize production was off to a good start in Bangladesh, India and southeast Asia.

Rice: Harvest of rainfed rice in China, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and South-East Asia was completed by December. The conditions during the monsoon season had been quite favorable for high production levels. Rainfall in South-East Asia was close to normal levels during this monitoring period. However, the prolonged low flow and drought conditions of the Mekong River, which started in 2019, are taking a toll on rice production. It impacts not only the Tonle Sap basin in Cambodia, but the delta in Vietnam as well, where increased salinization of the rice fields is hurting production. Production in the other parts of the world is minor in relation to Asia. It is expected to remain stable in Nigeria and West Africa as a whole, although rainfall had stayed below average. Conditions for rice in Argentina, predominantly sown in Mesopotamia, are average. The season was off to a good start, but rainfall deficits in December and January may jeopardize production. The situation is similar in adjacent regions in Brazil.

Wheat: Conditions for wheat production in the Southern Hemisphere were generally favorable, apart from Brazil, which suffered from drought conditions. Argentina, South Africa and Australia benefitted from above average rainfall which result in record yield levels. The winter wheat production regions in the southern plains of the USA are impacted by below average rainfall. The rainfall deficit is even larger in the Maghreb, especially in Morocco. Prospects are highly unfavorable for that country. Planting of winter wheat in Europe benefitted from relatively dry conditions, which lasted into November. This however slowed the germination and establishment of the plants. Winter conditions have been relatively mild and wet, helping the plants catch up. Conditions were similar in Turkey and the Middle East. Abundant precipitation in January helped restore soil moisture levels in that region. In China, the winter wheat sowing period was marked by abundant rainfall which caused flooding along the Yellow River. Most fields could still get sown in time and above average rainfall helped with the establishment of the crops. In South Asia, most wheat is irrigated, and the rainfall has little impact on its wheat production. Overall, conditions are favorable. 

Soybean: Soybean planting for the 2021/22 season started in October in Brazil. Conditions were favorable in the center and north of the country. In Mato Grosso, harvest started in January. In the south (Parana and Rio Grande do Sul) production has been negatively impacted by drought conditions. The drought, related to La Niña, has hampered soybean production in neighboring Paraguay and Argentina as well. Hence, prospects for soybean production in the Southern Hemisphere are mixed.

3. Weather anomalies and biomass production potential changes 

(1) Rainfall (Figure 3.1) 

The west and north-west of the USA benefitted from above average rainfall in October and November, which provided some relief for the drought-stricken region. Precipitation was near average in the Canadian Prairies as well, which helps restore moisture levels for the summer crops. The South and East of the USA, as well as Mexico and Central America had a rainfall deficit in the range of -10 to -30%. In South America, rainfall was above average in Bolivia, and the Pampas in Argentina. In Brazil, conditions were mixed: severe drought conditions in the south and coastal regions, and more favorable conditions in Mato Grosso. In Africa, most countries experienced a severe shortfall in rain. The largest deficits were recorded for Morocco, West Africa and all of Africa south of the equator. Conditions were drier than usual in Western Europe as well, but average to above average rainfall in December and January improved the situation. High rainfall also brought some relief to Afghanistan in January, which had suffered from a prolonged drought. Conditions are dryer than normal in Syria and Jordan as well. Apart from Myanmar, all regions in South and East Asia received average to above average precipitation. Most of India, Nepal and the North China Plain experienced rainfall anomalies that were higher than +30%. The south and east of Australia also received above average rainfall.

 Figure 3.1 National and subnational rainfall anomaly (as indicated by the RAIN indicator) of October 2021 to January 2022 total relative to the 2007-2021 average (15YA), in percent. 

(2) Temperature anomalies (Figure 3.2) 

Temperatures were warmer than the 15YA for most of the USA, Mexico and eastern Canada. Cooler than normal temperatures were observed for western Canada and Alaska. In South America, most of Brazil, as well as Paraguay, Uruguay and the main crop production regions in Argentina experienced warmer than usual conditions. Below average temperatures were observed for the Andes region in Argentina and Bolivia. Temperatures were near average for most of Europe, with the exception of France and some countries in the Balkans. Cooler than usual temperatures were recorded for Pakistan and northern India and Nepal. Most of Siberia experienced temperatures that were more than 1.5ºC warmer than average. Temperatures were cooler than the average in the wheat producing regions of Australia.

Figure 3.2 National and subnational temperature anomaly (as indicated by the RAIN indicator) of October 2021 to January 2022 average relative to the 2007-2021 average (15YA), in °C 

(3) RADPAR anomalies (Figure 3.3) 

Higher solar radiation increases photosynthesis and thus crop production potential and yields. Solar radiation was above average for most of Canada and the USA, except for the regions bordering the Pacific Ocean. Mexico, Central America and the northern regions of South America also experienced above average rainfall. Mato Grosso, as well as Bolivia and the Andean regions in Argentina experienced a sunshine deficit by more than 3%. Most of Africa received average to above average solar radiation, except for Zimbabwe, Botswana, Senegal and Libya. In Europe, conditions were generally sunnier as well, especially in the West and East. In the north of India, Nepal and most of the crop production regions in China, solar radiation was below average. Conditions were sunnier than usual for most of Australia, apart from the Southeast. 

Figure 3. 3 National and subnational sunshine anomaly (as indicated by the RADPAR indicator) of October 2021 to January 2022 total relative to the 2007-2021 average (15YA), in percentage

(4) Biomass accumulation potential BIOMSS (Figure 3.4) 

The BIOMSS indicator is controlled by temperature, rainfall and solar radiation. In some regions, rainfall is more limiting, whereas in other ones, mainly the tropical ones, solar radiation tends to be the limiting factor. Biomass estimates were lower by more than 10% as compared to the 15YA for the drought affected winter wheat production of the southern High Plains of the USA. For Mexico, Colombia and Venezuela lower biomass production was estimated as well. For almost all of Argentina a positive departure from the 15YA was calculated. In Brazil, conditions for biomass production were less favorable and deficits larger than -10% were estimated for most crop production regions. Similarly, the conditions for biomass production in the south-west of Europe, the Maghreb, most of West Africa, southern and Eastern Africa were not conducive for biomass production and estimates were 5 to 10% and even more below average. Conditions for biomass production were favorable or Pakistan, India and most of the crop production regions in Eastern China. Conditions were mixed in Australia: below average in the West and more than 10% above average in the East.

Figure 3.4 National and subnational biomass production potential anomaly (as indicated by the BIOMSS indicator) of October 2021 to January 2022 total relative to the 2007-2021 average (15YA), in percent.