Based on the phenology calendar, the current period covers the harvest of wheat and barley in Australia. The remote sensing based NDVI profiles showed favorable conditions, as the crop conditions were better than the maximum of the last 5 years, especially in November and December. Based on the spatial NDVI patterns, 32.6% of the cropland had generally favorable NDVI departures over the whole period, while the remaining area was close to the average of the last 5 years. 

Compared to the 15YA, the largest agroclimatic variation was rainfall, which increased by 30%, to 341 mm. Combined with slightly below average temperature (-1°C) and radiation (-2%), the potential accumulated biomass was 8% above the average. The CALF increased by 22% compared to the 5YA, and VCI was 0.84. VCIx in the southeast Australia was generally better than in the southwest.

In general, the crop conditions in the current period were favorable. According to the rainfall profile, the above average rainfall was mostly concentrated in November. Drier weather in December improved conditions for wheat harvest. All in all, above average production can be expected for Australia.

Regional analysis 

This analysis adopts five agro-ecological regions for Australia, namely the Arid and Semi-arid Zone, Southeastern Wheat Zone, Sub-humid Subtropical Zone, Southwestern Wheat Zone, Wet Temperate and Subtropical Zone. The Arid and Semi-arid Zone, in which hardly any crop production takes place, was not analyzed.

Three of the four AEZs analyzed, i.e., Southeastern wheat zone, Sub-humid subtropical zone, and Wet temperate and subtropical zone, presented a similar pattern for the agroclimatic indicators, with largely above average rainfall (+46%, +37%, +36%), slightly below average temperature (-1.1°C, -0.8°C, -0.4 °C) and radiation (-3% for all). As a result, the climatic indicators-based biomass estimates were above average (+9%, +9%, +16%). The CALF and VCIx in these 3 zones were good, especially the CALF in the Subhumid subtropical zone increased by 94%. This means that more arable land in this zone was cultivated. The NDVI profiles of the zones further confirms the good conditions, in which the NDVI departures were all better than 5YA and better than the 5-year maximum starting from November. 

The remaining one, Southwestern Wheat Zone, showed the opposite conditions, with below-average rainfall (-15%) and temperature (-0.7°C), slightly above average radiation (+1%). The biomass was consequently below average (-5%). The CALF increased slightly (+12%), and VCIx was 0.84. However, combined with the NDVI profile, which were close to the 5-year maximum, the crop conditions in this zone were also favorable.

Figure 3.8. Australia's crop condition, October 2021 – January 2022

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI         (c) Maximum VCI

(d)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                       (e)NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid and semiarid zone (left) and Southeastern wheat area (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Subhumid subtropical zone (left) and Southwestern wheat area (right))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Wet temperate and subtropical zone)

(i)Time series rainfall profile (left) and temperature profile (right)

Table 3.7. Australia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2021 - January 2022

Table 3.8. Australia's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2021 - January 2022