Winter wheat, which was sown in October, is the major crop in the field during this monitoring period. Agro-climatic conditions showed a slightly decreased rainfall compared to average, especially in the central and southern region (RAIN 270 mm -4%). Both temperature (TEMP 1.1°C, +0.2°C) and radiation (RADPAR 179 MJ/m², +12%) increased as compared to the 15YA. Nearly all the arable land was cropped (CALF at about 99%) and the maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was high (0.83). Weather-based projected potential biomass remained near the 15YA.

At the national level, NDVI was below the 5YA in October, and then close to the 5YA in November but declined in December. Crop condition in about 77.5% cropped area was below but close to the 5-year average, in agreement with the national VCIx map. According to the spatial distribution maps, although VCIx was satisfactory in most areas of the country (>0.8), there was an apparent drop of NDVI profiles in many areas from December to January, the reason for which might be clouds and snow.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions, regional analyses for three agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are provided, including Northern Belarus (028, Vitebsk, the northern area of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev), Central Belarus (027, Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev) and Southern Belarus (029) which includes the southern halves of Brest and Gomel regions.

Northern Belarus (Vitebsk, northern area of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev) had more rainfall (+2%) and slightly increased temperature (+0.1°C) than average, radiation also increased (+12%). Agronomic indicators showed satisfactory values: 99% for CALF and 0.82 for VCIx. Crop conditions are average.

In Central Belarus, the regions of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev recorded lower rainfall (-9%), slightly higher temperature (+0.2°C) and above-average radiation (+12%). The BIOMSS is projected to remain at the same level as the 15YA. Nearly full cropped arable land (CALF at 98%) and a VCIx value of 0.83 were observed. The overall situation was average for the winter crops.

The Southern Belarus (southern halves of Brest and Gomel regions) experienced the same agro-climatic condition as the Central area. Lower rainfall (-12%), higher temperature (+0.2°C) and radiation (+12%) were recorded. The BIOMSS is projected to increase by 1%. Favorable agronomic indicators (CALF 99%, VCIx 0.84) were observed. All in all, conditions are average

Figure 3.10 Belarus’s crop condition, October 2021- January 2022.

(a). Phenology of major crops

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                 (e) NDVI profiles

(f)Rainfall time series 

 (g) Temperature time series

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North Belarus)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Belarus)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South-west Belarus)

from 15YA, October 2021- January 2022.

Table 3.12 Belarus’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, October 2021- January 2022.