During the period from October 2021 to January 2022, the harvest of wheat had concluded. Soybean, first season maize and rice in Central-South Brazil reached the peak vegetation cover by the end of monitoring period. The sowing of rice in Northern Brazil started in late January, while the planting of maize in the north will start at the end February.

The 2021-2022 summer crops were adversely affected by the prolonged dry and warmer-than-usual weather, with overall crop conditions slightly below average level. At the national level, Brazil received 659 mm rainfall on average, 28% below the 15YA. CropWatch Agro-Climatic Indicators (CWAIs) present 0.9°C higher temperature and average radiation compared with the 15YA. The below-average rainfall and above average temperature resulted in unfavorable soil moisture for crop growth and caused a 13% reduction of potential biomass. Most central and southern Brazil suffered from severe water shortage while few states received well above average rainfall along the East coast and in the Northwest. Extreme dry weather was observed in the top nine major agricultural producing states except for Santa Catarina where rainfall was just 5% below the 15YA. Negative rainfall departures by more than 40% were observed for all other major agricultural producing states such as Goias, Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso Do Sul and Ceara. Temperatures in those five major states were all well above average, more than 0.9ºC higher than the 15YA. The largest negative departure of rainfall and positive temperature anomaly were both found in Goias, resulting in a 40% drop in potential biomass. Radiation was in general close to average ranging from -5% in Goias to +4% in Ceara compared with the average. Low rainfall, high temperature and radiation resulted in below average BIOMSS in all major agricultural producing states. According to the BIOMSS departure map and the meteorological drought conditions illustrated by the standard precipitation index map, the water stress affected area further expanded and worsened for most of southern Brazil as compared to the November 2021 Bulletin.

National rainfall profiles also confirmed the continuously dry weather. Each ten-days rainfall average was below average, except for early January when rainfall was slightly above average but did not effectively alleviate the persistent drought conditions.The lack of rainfall reduced crop growth as shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI. Vegetation greenness presents below-average values throughout the monitoring period. Spatial distribution of NDVI departure from 5YA and the corresponding profiles presented significantly below-average NDVI in southern Mato Grosso Do Sul, Parana, and Rio Grande Do Sul. The output of soybean and first season maize might further drop from last year's low production. Accordingly, the VCIx map also presents low values (< 0.8) in Southern Brazil (figure b). Below-average rainfall was also observed in Central Brazil including Mato Grosso, Sao Paulo, Goias, and Minus Gerias. Crop conditions were improving to average due to the average to above-average rainfall in January. Meanwhile, VCIx values in most other regions of Brazil show average to above average conditions. At the national level, VCIx was 0.92. CALF was at 99%, 2% above the 5YA, indicating overall limited effects from the dry weather on the sowing of the crops.

In general, crop conditions in Brazil were slightly below average by the end of monitoring period. Production of first season maize, second season maize and soybean are all forecasted to be below average, but close to those of last year (2020-2021).

Regional analysis

Considering the differences in cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, eight agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are identified for Brazil. These include the Central Savanna, the East coast, Parana River, Amazon zone, Mato Grosso zone, Southern subtropical rangelands, mixed forest, and farmland, and the Nordeste. During this monitoring period, Central Savanna, Mato Grosso, Nordeste and Parana basin have suffered from significantly below-average rainfall, ranging from -48% to -62%. Together with above average temperature, the dry and hot weather resulted in below-average BIOMSS in those four zones ranging from 15% below the 15YA in Nordeste to 35% below average in Central Savanna. Weather conditions were slightly below average in Mato Grosso and Northeastern mixed forest and farmland while they were near average at the East coast and above average in Amazonas.

According to the NDVI profiles, crop growth conditions in Central Savanna, Coast and Northeastern mixed forest and farmland zones were below average at the end of 2021, but improved to the average level in January. This can be attributed to the above average rainfall in late December 2021 to early January 2022, which mitigated the water stress. CALF in those three AEZs were slightly above average with high VCIx values (all higher than 0.95).

Mato Grosso, as the top maize producing zone, also experienced moderate negative departures in rainfall. The total precipitation was more than 1000 mm during the monitoring period which in theory provides sufficient water to meet the crop demand. However, the rainfall profiles presented an uneven distribution of rainfall during the four months, with well below average rainfall except for mid-November, and mid to late-December. The miss-match between rainfall and water demand resulted in unfavorable crop growth condition. According to the VCIx map, the poorest crop conditions were mostly located at the center to the north of the zone, while other regions in the AEZ present average to above conditions.

Southern subtropical rangelands and the Parana basin are the major producing zones for the soybean and first season maize. The below average rainfall in the two AEZs resulted in severe drought which was clearly indicated by the VCIx map. Accordingly, the average VCIx for the two zones also ranks at the bottom of the eight AEZs. As shown in the rainfall profiles, the rainfall was continuously below average throughout the monitoring period. The above average temperature further accelerated the loss of soil moisture. The comparison between the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) map in this bulletin and the November 2021 bulletin indicates that the severity of drought intensified. The negative departures of NDVI from the 5YA further increased, showing poor growth conditions and decreasing yield perspectives for summer crops.

Nordeste is dominated by dry and hot weather. It received the least rainfall of just 133 mm in the eight zones. Nevertheless, the NDVI-based crop development profiles present above-average growth conditions. Considering the semi-arid climate in the region, most crops are irrigated which contributes to the above average condition. Irrigation resulted in the highest VCIx values for this zone, as compared with others. CALF reached 96%, which is 33% above the 5YA.

For more indicators and detailed information, it is recommended to visit CropWatch Explore (http://cropwatch.com.cn/newcropwatch/main.htm).

Figure 3.11 Brazil’s crop condition, October 2021 – January 2022

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Maximum VCI

(c) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and rainfall profile (right) of Brazil

(d) Spatial distribution of NDVI departure clusters   (e) NDVI departure profiles corresponding to the clusters in figure d

(f) Potential biomass departure from 15YA

(g) Meteorological drought measured by standard precipitation index, November 2021 to January 2022

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Amazon

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Central Savanna

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Coast zone

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Mato Grosso

(L) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Nordeste

(m) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Northeastern mixed forest and farmland

(n) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Parana basin

(o) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Southern subtropical rangelands

Table 3.13  Brazil agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15 years average, October 2021 – January 2022

Table 3.14  Brazil agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5 years average, October 2021 – January 2022