The main food crops in Ethiopia are teff, wheat, barley and maize. Good crop condition was mentioned during the last monitoring period, except for the Tigray region. This monitoring period covers October 2021 to January 2022, which is the harvest period for grains. 

At the national level, the agroclimatic indicators cumulative precipitation (RAIN -24%), average temperature (TEMP +0.1°C) and photosynthetically active radiation (RADPAR +3%) point to dry, temperate and sunny crop ripening and harvesting conditions. The estimated cumulative potential biomass (BIOMSS) decreased by 7% due to the reduced precipitation. However, this is somewhat misleading. Since cereal crops required less water during harvest, relatively low precipitation would not reduce production but is beneficial for harvest.  As shown by the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, crop conditions were close to the 5-year average. The maximum VCI graph also confirmed this fact, as almost the whole country had a maximum VCI greater than 0.8. The spatial distribution of NDVI profiles revealed that most areas had good crop conditions. 

In general, crops were growing well in most regions of Ethiopia and were harvested under favorable conditions. CropWatch estimates favorable outputs for the summer crops, except for Tigray, where farmland was left fallow due to the armed conflict.

Regional analysis

In the Semi‐arid pastoral areas, a typical livestock production zone, mean temperature and photosynthetically active radiation were close to the 15-year average (TEMP +1.0°C, RADPAR +2%) while cumulative precipitation was decreased by 36%. Cumulative potential biomass creased by 2%. At the same time, the NDVI values in the region were around the 5-year average for the reporting period. The maximum VCI was 0.78. Compared to the 5-year average, CALF decreased by 18%, which means cropland was left fallow. Overall, the outlook for livestock production is normal in the region.

The agroclimatic conditions in the Southeastern Mendebo highlands zone, South-eastern mixed maize zone and the Western mixed maize zone were very similar to the Semi‐arid pastoral areas, with low precipitation but average temperature and photosynthetically active radiation close to the15-year average. The NDVI was also near the average level, which means that the harvest was progressing normally. However, the difference was that CALF in all three regions was around the average level and the maximum VCI was above 0.9. This indicates that the crop production in these regions, especially for maize, was favorable.

The northern arid area is an agricultural area in northern Ethiopia. Due to the war, the cropped arable land fraction was almost zero and a severe food shortage is developing.

Figure 3.15 Ethiopia’s crop condition, October 2021-January 2022

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                              (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                   (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                                                (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Semi‐arid pastoral (left) South‐eastern Mendebo highlands (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South‐eastern mixed maize zone (left) and South‐eastern mixed maize zone (right))

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern arid area)

Table 3.21 Ethiopia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2021-January 2022

Table 3.22. Ethiopia’s agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2021-January 2022