The monitoring period covers the harvest of the dry season maize and the second rice in Java, and the planting of main season rice and the main season maize in Java and Sumatra.

CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that temperature (TEMP +0.2°C), precipitation (RAIN +2%), and radiation (RADPAR +5%) were all slightly above average, which led to an increase of the potential biomass production (BIOMSS +3%).

According to the regional NDVI development graph, crop conditions were slightly below average. The  NDVI departure cluster profiles indicate that: crop conditions in 40% of the cropped area were close to the 5YA, which were located in Sumatra, Java, Kupang, Timor, Kalimantan. In 51.5% of cultivated area, crop conditions were significantly below average in the beginning but recovered to slightly below average after January. This region was mostly located in Sumatra, Kalimantan, Semarang, Sulawesi, Ambon. The area of cropped arable land (CALF 99%) in the country was close to the 5YA and the VCIx value was 0.96. The crop conditions can be anticipated to be close to or slightly above average.

Regional analysis

Indonesia has been divided into four agro-ecological zones, namely Sumatra (92), Java (90, the main agricultural region in the country), Kalimantan and Sulawesi (91) and West Papua (93), among which the first three are relevant for crops cultivation. The numbers correspond to the labels on the VCIx and NDVI profile maps.

Java experienced rainy conditions. Precipitation (RAIN +7%) and radiation (RADPAR +5%) were above the 15YA, whereas temperature (TEMP +0°C) was close to average, resulting in an above-average potential biomass production (BIOMSS +8%). As shown in the NDVI development graphs, crop conditions were below the 5YA in mid-November and mid-January, but close to average at other times. Overall, crop conditions in Java are anticipated to be above average.

In the Kalimantan and Sulawesi region, precipitation (RAIN +4%), temperature (TEMP +0.1°C) and radiation (RADPAR +5%) were above the 15YA, which led to an increase of the potential biomass production (BIOMSS +4%). According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were below the 5YA. Crop conditions in this region are expected to be above average.

In Sumatra, precipitation (RAIN -1%) was below the 15YA. However, temperature (TEMP +0.2°C) and radiation (RADPAR +7%) were above the 15YA. They resulted in an increase in the potential biomass production (BIOMSS +1%). As shown in NDVI development graphs, crop conditions were below average. Crop conditions in this region are assessed as close to or slightly above average.

                  Figure 3.19. Indonesia’s crop condition, October 2021 – January 2022

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                                              (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                            (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles

(g) Temperature profiles

(h) Proportion of NDVI anomaly categories compared with 5YA

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Java)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Kalimantan-Sulawesi (left) and Sumatra (right))

Table 3.29 Indonesia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2021 – January 2022

Table 3.30 Indonesia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, October 2021 – January 2022