Kenya experiences two rainy seasons: The long rains last from March to May and the short rains from October to December. Maize can be grown during the long and short rains, whereas wheat is grown during the long rains only. This report for the monitoring period from October 2021 to January 2022 covers the short rain season and the harvest of wheat and long rain maize. Short rain maize was sown in October and November.

At the national scale, precipitation was 277 mm, 34% below average. When looking into sub-national level, rainfall was lower in all areas. The weather was slightly warmer and RADPAR was close to the 15YA (TEMP +0.4°C, RADPAR +2%). BIOMSS was 14% lower than average due to insufficient rainfall. According to the national rainfall profiles, the 10-day accumulations of rainfall presented conditions that were close to the 15YA in the December and January but significant below average in the October and November.

The NDVI development graph at the national level shows that the NDVI values from October to December were below average.  It can be noticed that the sowing of maize in the short rainy season was delayed and in some areas there may be no harvest. This is mainly due to the significant decrease in rainfall. Based on the NDVI clusters and the corresponding NDVI departure profiles, the western part of Kenya (blue area), which accounts for 43.6% of the country's cultivated land, has near-average NDVI values, while other areas show significant deviations in the October to December crop growth. This is consistent with the maximum VCI map, which shows a relatively low VCI of between 0.5 and 0.8 in the central and southeastern regions.

Regional analysis

The Eastern coastal region had the largest negative deviation in rainfall (-27%), 0.5°C above average temperature and 4% above average RADPAR. Lack of rainfall resulted in a 12% decrease in BIOMSS and a significant decrease in NDVI from October to December compared to the 5YA. This indicates that the conditions for sowing of short rainy season maize was impacted. Drought conditions also led to a decrease in crops planted area. CALF decreased by 11% as compared to the 5YA. The maximum VCIx was only 0.67, the lowest among the four AEZs in Kenya. Overall, the situation in the coastal areas is very unfavorable with poor prospects for livestock and crop production.

The Highland agriculture zone recorded 297 mm of rain, which was below the 15YA (-29%). Temperature was close to the 15YA (+0.4°C), whereas RADPAR was slightly above average (+2%). BIOMSS was below average (-12%). The NDVI was slightly below the 5YA from October to December. As with the eastern coastal region, the sowing of maize in the short rainy season was also affected by the lack of rainfall. The maximum VCIx value (0.89) is the highest in four AEZs in Kenya. The CALF was unchanged compared with the 5YA. Overall, crop growth has been severely affected by drought conditions from October to January.

In the Northern region, precipitation was below average at 265 mm (-30%). The temperature was close to the 15YA (+0.5°C), while RADPAR was above average (+3%). BIOMSS was below average (-11%). The maximum VCIx was normal at 0.72. The below-average trend of its crop condition development graph indicates that the area was affected by drought between October and December. The sowing of maize in the short rainy season was delayed. In addition, CALF decreased (-8%) to 75%. In general, the region has seen a decrease in rainfall, biomass, and CALF. This indicates that the region is severely affected by drought from October to January.

The Southwest region includes the areas of Narok, Kajiado, Kisumu, Nakuru and Embu. Precipitation was 145 mm, which is 68% below the average. The following values of indicators were observed: TEMP 20.6°C (+0.4°C), RADPAR (-4%) and BIOMSS (-34%). The significant decrease in precipitation led to a significant decrease in biomass. However, NDVI values were close to the 5YA. Despite the large variation in precipitation, its CALF and RADPAR were close to average and the VCIx value remained at 0.85. NDVI profile also presented close to average crop condition. The possible reason is the irrigation in the region narrowed the impact of drought on crops. All in all, the parameters indicate slightly below average conditions for this area.

Figure 3.24 Kenya's crop condition, October 2021-January 2022

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                               (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                    (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall                                                                                                   (g) Time series temperature

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, The eastern coastal region(left), The Highland agriculture zone(right)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the northern region with sparse vegetation (left), South-west (right)

Table 3.40 Kenya's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,

October 2021-January 2022

 Table 3.41 Kenya's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, October 2021-January 2022