Maize is the most important crop grown in Mexico. In the rainfed production regions of the country, maize reached maturity in September and October. Sowing of irrigated maize started in September. Its main production region is in the northwest. Winter wheat sowing began in November. Both soybean and rice reached maturity by the end of this reporting period.

The CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that RAIN decreased by 14% and TEMP increased by 0.6°C and RADPAR was above average (+6%). Accordingly, BIOMSS decreased by 6% as compared to the 15YA due to decreased RAIN. CALF was close to average and reached 85%. The VCI was 0.84.

In terms of Agro-climatic conditions, the national precipitation and temperature was at the average level during the monitoring period of this bulletin. According to figure b, crop growth was also at an average level. According to VCI spatial patterns, very high values (greater than 1.0) occurred mainly in eastern coastal areas, including Tamaulipas. Extremely low values (less than 0.5) occurred in the northeast border area, mainly in the Nuevo León, Coahuila de Zaragoza and western coastal areas.

As shown in the spatial NDVI profiles and distribution map, 55.4% of the total cropped areas were above average during the entire monitoring period, mainly distributed in the northeast and south coastal areas. 44.7% of the total cropped areas were below average, mainly in Sinaloa. 

Overall, the crop conditions were slightly below the average level. Mexico still has not fully recovered from the prolonged drought conditions. Low water levels in the reservoirs explain the below-average conditions in irrigated regions, especially in Sinaloa.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, Mexico is divided into four agro-ecological regions. They include the Arid and semi-arid region (128), Humid tropics with summer rainfall (129), Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (130) and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (131). Regional analyses of crop conditions provide more details for the production situation in Mexico.

The Arid and semi-arid region, located in northern and central Mexico, accounts for about half of planted areas in the country. The agro-climatic condition showed that RAIN decreased by 22%, TEMP increased by 1°C and RADPAR increased by 3%. According to the NDVI development graph, crop condition in this region was below the average. CALF increased by 3% compared with the 5YA. The Arid and semi-arid region was one of the most drought affected region and the VCIx was 0.74.

The region of Humid tropics with summer rainfall is located in southeastern Mexico. RAIN was slightly below average (-4%), TEMP was 0.5℃ warmer, RADPAR increased by 9% and BIOMSS increased by 6%. As shown in the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were close to average from October to January. CALF was 100%. The VCIx (0.91) confirmed favorable crop conditions in this region.

The Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains is situated in central Mexico. According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were below but close to average, and later recovered to average levels. The agro-climatic conditions were close to the average level. RAIN decreased by 27%, TEMP increased by 0.3°C, and RADPAR increased by 7% compared to the 15YA. BIOMSS decreased by 14% and CALF was 97%. High CALF made VCIx reach 0.92.

The region called Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains is located in southern Mexico. During the monitoring period, crop conditions were close to average in four months as shown by the NDVI time profiles. Agro-climatic conditions were close to average levels, including RAIN (-17%), TEMP (+0.5℃) and RADPAR (+6%). CALF was 98% The VCIx for the region was 0.92 and BIOMSS was near average.

Figure 3.5 Mexico’s crop condition, October 2021 - January 2022

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                           (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                                    (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                                                                              (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid and semi-arid regions (left) and Humid tropics with summer rainfall (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (left) and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (right))

Table 3.1 Mexico’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, October 2021 - January 2022

Table 3.2 Mexico’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, October 2021 - January 2022