During this reporting period, the rainy season came to an end. The planting of maize started in October. Its harvest will begin about 4 months later. The main rice was harvested as well in October and November, while the second rice was planted in November and December. During this monitoring period, the crop conditions for most of the country were fair.

Compared to the 15YA, RAIN was lower (-16%) while TEMP was higher (+0.3ºC), and RADPAR was up by 3%. As a result, BIOMSS was 4% below the average. The utilization of cropland was the same as the 5YA. NDVI values were close to average during the entire period. The maximum VCI during this period was 0.91. 

A majority of the country’s croplands suffered from slightly below-average crop conditions during the period. The above-average crop condition with positive NDVI departures accounted for 29.4% of the cropland that were mainly located in Central Plain and the Hills in the east. The remaining 70.6% trended below average throughout this monitoring period. The military takeover and its armed conflict against the civil population seems to be taking a toll on crop production. The abnormally low NDVI departure values in October were most likely caused by cloudy weather. 

The maximum VCI showed high values over most regions of the country.

Regional analysis

Three sub-national agro-ecological zones (AEZ) can be distinguished for Myanmar based on the cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions. They are the Central plain, the Hills and the Delta and Southern Coast regions.

The Central Plain had a marked rainfall deficit (RAIN -34%), with RADPAR up by 3% and TEMP up by 0.7ºC compared to the 15YA. BIOMSS was 9% lower than the 15YA.  CALF showed that 99% of the cropland was fully utilized, the same as the 5YA. NDVI was slightly below the 5YA level during the whole period. The VCIx was 0.91. Crop conditions for this region were slightly below average.

The Hills region also had below-average rainfall, at 278mm, with RAIN below the 15YA (-18%). RADPAR was 3% above average and TEMP increased by 0.2ºC. BIOMSS was 3% below the 15YA. The cropland was almost fully used (CALF +99%). The NDVI values were close to the 5YA during the whole period. The VCIx was 0.93. Crop conditions are assessed as close to the 5YA level.

The Delta and Southern Coast region had the highest RAIN (401 mm) compared with the other two sub-national regions, and it was 9% above the 15YA. TEMP and RADPAR increased by 0.1ºC and 1% respectively. BIOMSS was close to the 15YA. CALF was comparable to the 5YA and VCIx was 0.92. The NDVI values were below the 5YA especially in October. Crop conditions in this region were below average.

Figure 3.30 Myanmar crop condition, October 2021 – January 2022

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Rainfall Profile

(d) Temperature Profile

(e)  Maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) in Myanmar

(f)  Spatial NDVI patterns compared to %5YA

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in central plain region

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in hills region 

(i)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in delta and southern coast region

Table 3.51 Myanmar agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2021 – January 2022

Table 3.52 Myanmar agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2021 – January 2022