Nationwide, the reporting period (October 2021 – January 2022) covers the land preparing, planting and early growth stages of the major crops, i.e., maize and rice, corresponding to the agricultural season 2021/22. The above-mentioned period was characterized by below-average rains in the northern coast region that contributed to the delay in sowing in the Provinces of Nampula, Cabo Delgado and Niassa. Compared to the previous fifteen years' nationwide average, the rainfall (RAIN) registered a decrease by 30% while both temperature (TEMP) and radiation (RADPAR) increased by 0.5ºC and 1%, respectively. The combination of these factors resulted in a decrease of the total biomass production (BIOMSS) by about 14%.

During this period, the climate adversities had played a negative role in the early growing period of major crops in the north and central region of the country. In late January, these regions were overwhelmed with the tropical cyclone Ana which brought intensive storms and rains. This event left thousands of hectares of cultivated land devastated.  This fact is confirmed by the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, which indicates below-average crop conditions during the entire monitoring period compared to the past five years average. The same is also shown by the Spatial NDVI patterns, with only 28.5% (mostly in the southern region, covering the provinces of Maputo, Gaza and Inhambane) of the arable land presenting about average crop conditions. With the CALF recording an increase of just 1% compared to the past 5YA, the country’s maximum VCIx was 0.88. Despite the favourable crop conditions recorded in the southern region, generally, crop conditions in Mozambique were unfavourable and below average production is forecasted for the agricultural year 2021/22 if conditions remain the same throughout the agricultural season.

Regional analysis

Based on the national cropping system, topography and climate, CropWatch has subdivided Mozambique into five agroecological zones (AEZs) including the Buzi basin, Northern High-altitude areas, Low Zambezi River basin, Northern coast, and the Southern region.

As mentioned in the above national analysis, the climate adversities had a negative impact on crop conditions nationwide. The regional crop conditions based on NDVI indicate that apart from the southern region, crop conditions were unfavourable. In all the agroecological regions, the rainfall significantly decreased. Regions such as the Low Zambezi River basin, Northern high-altitude areas and Buzi basin have recorded the most significant decreases (-43%, -41% and -33%, respectively). Contrary to rainfall, increases in temperature varying from 01ºC to 0.9ºC were verified in all the agroecological zones. Increases were also verified for the radiation, where the Northern high-altitude areas and Low Zambezia River basin presented big increases of 6% and 3%, respectively. Total biomass production decreased in all agroecological zones and significant decreases of 24%, 17% and 16% were observed in the Northern high-altitude areas, Low Zambezia River basin and Northern coast, respectively.

The agronomic indicators for this period relevel that the cropped arable land fraction was near the 5YA in the Buzi basin while decreases of 7% and 3% were observed in the Northern high-altitude areas and the Low Zambezia River basin, respectively. At the same time, increases by 2% in CALF were verified in both the Northern coast and the Southern region. The current maximum VCIx varied from 0.74 to 0.88.

Figure 3.32. Mozambique's crop condition, October 2021–January 2022

a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI            (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA          (e) NDVI profiles

(f) National time-series rainfall profiles                                         (g) National time-series temperature profiles

(h) Proportion of NDVI anomaly categories compared with 5YA

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Buzi basin (left), and Northern high-altitude areas (right)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Lower Zambezi River basin (left), and Northern coast region (right)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Southern region

Table 3.55. Mozambique’s agroclimatic indicators by sub national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2021 – January 2022

Table 3.56. Mozambique’s agronomic indicators by sub national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2021 – January 2022